Europe Economics Update China rebound won’t get Germany back on track Weaker Chinese demand can explain only a fraction of the slowdown in German GDP growth over the past year: softer demand in other export markets and in the euro-zone are more important factors... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yield curve not the only recession indicator For all the focus on the Treasury yield curve, other leading indicators of activity are not yet signalling that a recession is imminent. But their recent deterioration does suggest that the risks are... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should we blame Brexit or the global economy? While everyone knows that Brexit explains a big part of the slowdown in GDP growth in recent years, it’s less widely accepted that the global economy needs to take a lot of the blame too. So while... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic weakness will force rate cuts this year We expect GDP growth to slow to only 1.0% this year, as the housing downturn weighs on the domestic economy and exports are held back by the global slowdown. That weakness should prompt the Bank of... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in Brazilian industry? Part of the recent weakness in Brazilian industry can be pinned on softer external demand, particularly from Argentina. But the sector has also been affected by temporary factors which have probably... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Mar.) March’s decline in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) adds to the evidence from other surveys that the economy has continued to lose momentum. And there is no sign that either the... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) March’s set of ESIs point to GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe holding up at 4.0% y/y in Q1. But evidence that the weakening external environment is starting to take a bigger toll the region’s... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Weak profits strengthen case for benchmark rate cuts A sharp fall in earnings for industrial firms in January and February shows the pressure that weak demand is putting firms’ balance sheets under. We think officials will respond by cutting benchmark... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s central bank hints at rate cuts Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today dropped its clearest hint yet that interest rate cuts are on the way after it lowered its growth forecasts for this year and pledged that monetary policy would be... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth slowing in Q1 The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the second half of 2018 worsened at the start of this year. EM GDP growth in Q1 is shaping up to be the weakest since Q4 2016. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Grim news across the region Figures released over the past month added to concerns that Africa’s largest three economies stumbled in early 2019. There was, admittedly, some good news from Kenya, where judges struck down a cap on... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy at risk of perma-recession Over the next ten years, we think that Italy’s economy will fail to grow because productivity growth will remain weak and total employment will fall. As a consequence, the public debt ratio will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator (Mar.) The decline in the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in March was not as bad as we had feared given the sharp fall in the euro-zone manufacturing PMI last week. But it is still consistent with... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will cut rates this year The RBNZ took a surprising dovish turn when it left the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% today, indicating that the next move is likely down. Given that we are more downbeat about the outlook for... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
