Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests in Belarus and what they mean for the region The escalation of protests in Belarus and calls for EU sanctions pose a major threat to political stability in the country and the economic outlook, but a downturn in Belarus’ economy would have... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) The drop in Thai GDP last quarter was not as huge as some other economies in the region, but Thailand’s dependence on tourism will weigh on the recovery in the quarters ahead and means the economic... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Despite its less severe restrictions on activity, Japan’s economy was hit just as hard by the virus in Q2 as many other large economies. However, we think GDP will converge to its pre-virus path... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark outperforms in Q2 News that Danish GDP contracted by 7.4% q/q in Q2 leaves us happy with our forecast that it will fall by only around 3% this calendar year – a much smaller contraction than we expect in the euro-zone... 14th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone GDP was unchanged in today’s release, but new data showed that the variation between countries was, if anything, larger than previously thought, while there was a... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2020) The Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe confirmed that the region’s industry-heavy economies suffered the largest hit in the crisis, while Poland and Bulgaria managed to escape double-digit... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) Turkish industrial production and retail sales continued to rebound strongly in June but even so it looks like the slump in GDP over Q2 as a whole is likely to have been in the region of 20% q/q or so... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Surge in truck sales adds to signs of a robust recovery Firms are adding to their fleets of trucks at the fastest pace in a decade, suggesting that they expect growth in industry to accelerate well above trend in the next few quarters. One near-term prop... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) Malaysia’s economy contracted by much more than we had expected in Q2, but monthly GDP data suggest that most of the slump had unwound by the end of the quarter. We think the economy will shrink by 5... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) The latest data suggest that China’s economy continued to recover in July, though less quickly than expected. But a slowdown in the recovery was always likely at some point as the initial boost from... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment to rise in both countries Australian employment rose in July but more timely data suggest it may have started to decline since then. That makes sense given the renewed and tighter lockdown in Melboune. And we expect further... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics SA suffers one of the world's worst downturns in Q2 The hard activity data from South Africa released this week confirm that the country suffered one of the largest falls in output in Q2 anywhere in the world, at around 22% q/q (63% q/q on an... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jun.) The second successive chunky increase in industrial output in June left it a long way below normal. Output will have risen more slowly in July, and we expect it to stay subdued during the next two... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Jun. & Q2) The rises in GDP in May and June mean that in some ways the largest recession on record is already over. But as the full scale of the fallout in unemployment has yet to be felt and as GDP may take 12... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ is not done loosening yet The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) further expanded its quantitative easing programme at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory next year. 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery running out of legs The recovery in India’s industrial sector has stalled. Given the substantial damage caused during the lockdown and the likelihood of a re-imposition of containment measures, the road to normality for... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
