Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts, austerity to hold back Saudi recovery The Saudi economy has embarked on a recovery in the past couple of months, but fiscal austerity and oil production cuts, as well as the ongoing suspension of pilgrimages, mean that it is likely to be... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q2) The 32.9% annualised decline in GDP in the second quarter, more than three times larger than the previous record quarterly contraction, underscores the unprecedented hit to the economy from the... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The 17.3% q/q slump in Mexico’s GDP in Q2 is likely to be one of the largest peak-to-trough falls in the emerging world. With the country still battling with its coronavirus outbreak, and the US... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (Jul.) The jump in the UK Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in July is an encouraging sign that the recovery continued at a decent pace at the start of Q3. Even so, rising unemployment is likely to put a... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q2 2020) The double-digit fall in quarterly GDP confirms that the coronavirus crisis delivered a huge blow to the Germany economy. Monthly and high frequency data show that activity bounced back since April... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Recovery losing steam Various high-frequency indicators are suggesting that the post-lockdown recovery has stalled. And with new confirmed virus cases still rising sharply, the ongoing need for physical distancing and... 30th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The surge in retail sales in June suggests that consumer spending will rebound across Q3 even if some restrictions on activity are reimposed to curb the renewed spread of the virus. 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rise in cases a further blow to Spain’s weak recovery Spain’s economic recovery was already set to be one of the weakest in the euro-zone but the resurgence in virus cases over the past week and subsequent re-imposition of restrictions deals a fresh blow... 29th July 2020 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy stabilised last quarter as fiscal stimulus and stronger demand in mainland China offset weaker consumption and investment. But with the city facing its worst COVID-19 outbreak yet... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (July) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in July suggests the recovery there continued to gather pace at the start of Q3. That said, the rise in consumption appears to be slowing, and... 29th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor First signs of EM recovery losing steam Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the EM recovery hit a snag in July, partly due to escalating coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in some EMs (South Africa, Colombia, Hong Kong). This may... 28th July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Risk of the virus dealing a second blow to the economy A surge in new domestic coronavirus cases is the biggest downside risk to our forecast that it will take two years for the economy to return to its pre-crisis peak. It could mean that the recovery... 28th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A better way to measure the recovery? A new type of recession requires new tools to measure it. It has become clear that the activity PMIs will be of little use in gauging the extent and pace of the recovery from the coronavirus crisis... 27th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slowing recovery will prompt more policy support The first increase in initial jobless claims since late-March last week has heightened fears that the economic recovery has started to go into reverse. Most other high-frequency indicators point to... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly IMF increasing funding limits, SA’s economic recovery The IMF’s decision to expand access limits could open the way for African economies to receive more multilateral support, but the Fund clearly wants countries to move to programmes with conditionality... 24th July 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt moratorium extension, shifting geopolitical sands The likely extension of the RBI’s debt moratorium will help smooth near-term cash flow issues for firms and households but, in the absence of additional financial support from the government, this won... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
