Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices, virus outbreak batter economies Given the pace at which the coronavirus is disrupting activity both in Africa and globally, most of the backward-looking figures released this month probably tell us very little about the current... 26th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1, Advanced) The sharp contraction in Singapore’s economy in Q1 was deeper than expected, and with global growth collapsing, the worst is yet to come. Given today’s outturn, we are lowering our 2020 GDP growth... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update What would a lockdown mean for Japan’s economy? Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike is mulling a lockdown for the capital in response to a rise in coronavirus cases. Taking into account the composition of Tokyo’s economy, we estimate that a lockdown in the... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Mexico sleepwalking into a crisis? Mexico’s economy is likely to suffer a similar fall in output this year as it did during the Tequila Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. Despite its reticence, the government will ultimately have... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update New macro forecasts – Q2 GDP to fall at 40% pace With the number of COVID-19 cases in the US skyrocketing and a rising share of the population under lockdown, we need to revise our macro forecasts quite significantly: We now expect second-quarter... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Region to suffer worst downturn since the 1980s Governments across the Middle East and North Africa have taken increasingly draconian steps over the past couple of weeks to contain the coronavirus outbreak and, as a result, there will be much more... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Growth to slump to a four-decade low in 2020 The measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus announced by PM Modi last night will be hard to fully implement but will still have severe economic repercussions. We now expect the economy to... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Lockdown will deepen economic contraction President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to emulate the lockdowns seen in Europe and East Asia will cause GDP to fall by 6-8% in Q2. It will also be the first real test of whether such policies can be... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy heading for recession The slump in domestic and external demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak means that we now expect the Russian economy to contract sharply this year. Despite its recent reluctance we expect... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Mar.) While the manufacturing PMI didn’t fall as sharply as we had anticipated in March, the plunge in the services sector underlines that the coronavirus outbreak will result in a sharp slowdown in... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Will the market rout trigger a balance of payments crisis? Foreign portfolio flows out of India’s markets have surged over the past month to more than double the peak during the “Taper Tantrum” in 2013, which pushed India to the brink of a balance of payments... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ unleashes full QE firepower New Zealand is set to enter a near-total lockdown this week which will cause economic activity to all but stop. The RBNZ launched quantitative easing today, but we think that more monetary stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Fiscal support ramped up as shutdown looms Australia is moving closer to shutting down a large share of its services sector and we now expect GDP to fall by 4% this year. The government is responding with a second, larger fiscal stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials still in denial over growth, scale of stimulus China’s government will only lower its 2020 GDP target marginally, to around 5% according to media reports. Given the sharp contraction in output this quarter, this would require implausibly strong... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Domestic lockdown eased as global outlook worsens Rapidly rising infection numbers in Europe and North America have prompted many government in those countries to roll out strict nationwide lockdowns. By contrast, there were signs of Japan’s already... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read