Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q2) While Sweden’s light-touch response to Covid has hogged the headlines, data released this morning show that the Norwegian economy outperformed its Nordic cousin in the first half of the year, and is... 25th August 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Bank to resume bond purchases in earnest The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t keen on providing more monetary stimulus and instead wants the government to do the heavy lifting. As such, the Bank will certainly keep policy settings unchanged... 25th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q2 2020) Nigeria’s GDP nose-dived in Q2 and we think the recovery will be held back by continuing oil production cuts, losses in employment and income and limited fiscal stimulus. 24th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) July’s batch of Polish activity data provides further evidence that industrial production and retail sales have rebounded quickly towards pre-virus levels. The rise in localised virus cases does not... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI dividend, agriculture outlook The RBI’s annual dividend transfer to the Finance Ministry will do little to ease the strains on the public finances, and the central budget deficit still looks set to widen sharply this year. On a... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New MPC will have more work to do The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show that the MPC – of which three members are now due to step down – has turned notably more hawkish on the inflation outlook. But there are... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery Following a huge drop in Q2, GDP is set to rebound sharply this quarter. The second virus wave already shows signs of slowing again and we think it merely brought the recovery in domestic demand to a... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea second wave will weigh on the recovery A growing second wave of infections in Korea is set to weigh on the recovery there. While new restrictions to contain the virus have been light, there is evidence that businesses and individuals have... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Aug.) The stagnation in Japan’s composite PMI in August is consistent with our view that the second virus wave has brought the recovery to a standstill but won’t cause a renewed downturn. 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of Q2 GDP and the recovery so far The latest Q2 GDP figures show diverging depths of downturns between EMs (outside China), which can largely be explained by differences in the severity of virus outbreaks and the stringency of... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s recovery set to weaken The latest data suggest that Brazil’s recovery so far has been quicker than we expected, which has prompted us to revise up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.0% (previously -7.0%). However, tighter... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second wave likely to be a drag rather than a disaster Virus numbers have risen sharply in the past month, but the second wave has different characteristics from the first. It is concentrated in younger people, so hospitals are not being put under such... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jul.) & Machinery Orders (Jun.) The July trade data are consistent with our view that net exports will provide a large boost to Q3 GDP growth. However, the fall in machinery orders to a seven-year low bodes ill for business... 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q2 2020) The 13.2% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy in Q2 appears to have been followed by a only a weak rebound in July but, with policymakers finally starting to get a grip on the coronavirus, the recovery... 18th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests in Belarus and what they mean for the region The escalation of protests in Belarus and calls for EU sanctions pose a major threat to political stability in the country and the economic outlook, but a downturn in Belarus’ economy would have... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
