Asia Economics Weekly Slow recovery in the Philippines, Taiwan-US FTA A long and strict lockdown meant the Philippines suffered one of the biggest falls in GDP in the region in the second quarter. The most recent data suggest that it is also experiencing one of the... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy to contract by 10% this year The shocking GDP data for Q2 and signs of a weak recovery have led us to revise down our expectations for growth in 2020. We are now forecasting GDP growth of -10% (previously -5.5%). Further ahead... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Withdrawal of policy support a headwind to activity With a record plunge in output, Australia entered its first recession in 29 years last quarter. Huge public support payments resulted in an increase in both corporate profits and household income and... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Jul.) Retail sales were 12% above pre-virus levels in July but the closure of non-essential shops in Victoria will weigh heavily on spending in August. That means that sales won’t rise all that much in Q3... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment to stay well below 2019 levels through 2021 Commercial real estate transactions are on course to fall by nearly 50% this year, despite a strong Q1. And with the latest data hinting that our downside scenario is now looking more likely, volumes... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia and Lebanon politics, Saudi corruption drive Political developments in Tunisia and Lebanon this week have raised hopes that policymakers can tackle their respective economic problems, but there remain plenty of reasons for caution. Elsewhere... 3rd September 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected 8.0% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in July adds to signs that the economy has recovered strongly in Q3. But with fiscal austerity likely to kick in next year... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Back to school boost for the economy The reopening of schools this week could give a boost to GDP of around 5% as output in the education sector returns to normal and parents who have had to provide childcare get back to work. 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa all fell adding to the signs that activity in the region has plateaued amid fiscal austerity and continued virus containment... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Aug.) The rise in the August PMIs pales in comparison with the falls during the lockdown and it is highly likely that output is still a very long way from pre-pandemic levels. Given the bleak economic... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jul.) The fall in export values in July is consistent with our view that exports won’t rebound much in Q3, but the jump in import values suggests that domestic demand is now on the mend. 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in dire straits, but reasons for cautious optimism The latest data suggest that, after one of the world’s steepest economic declines in Q2, Peru’s recovery is already stalling against a backdrop of high and rising new coronavirus cases. But for those... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam activity rebounding after latest virus scare The recent spike in coronavirus cases in Vietnam has had only a small negative impact on the economy. With the virus now seemingly under control again, Vietnam is still likely to be one of the few... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q2) Australia’s GDP fell by more than most had anticipated in Q2 but we think it will rebound marginally in Q3 despite the tightening of restrictions in Victoria. 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide more evidence of uneven recovery The further rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a nine-year high of 52.5 in August, from 51.4 in July, suggests that the EM recovery continued in the middle of Q3. But the rebound has been uneven... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2020) The Brazilian Q2 GDP data, which showed a 9.7% q/q fall in output, confirmed that the country suffered one of the more modest downturns in Latin America. But with fiscal policy set to turn from a... 1st September 2020 · 3 mins read
