Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: tourism and tighter policy to hinder recovery The 11% q/q drop in GDP in Turkey in Q2 was smaller than we had expected and we now forecast the economy to slump by 3% this year (previously 5.8%). But the recovery over the coming quarters will be... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs underpin the strength in metals prices China’s August PMI readings support our view that the economy will return to its pre-virus trend by the end of this year, which is positive for almost all commodities prices, but especially industrial... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The jump in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August confirms that the sector was boosted as the country eased lockdown restrictions further. But with power cuts becoming a problem once again and... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The batch of manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for August provided further signs that the economic rebound continued in Q3. Industrial sectors are likely to recover further over the coming... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The rise in August’s manufacturing PMI is cold comfort when set against the extremely weak GDP data for Q2 released yesterday. And with new coronavirus cases showing no signs of abating, we think the... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI points to faster growth in manufacturing activity in August. Admittedly, the official survey released yesterday had pointed to a marginal slowdown. But taken together... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) PMI readings suggest that manufacturing conditions generally improved in Asia last month, and we expect more gradual improvements as the external environment slowly recovers. 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) The 24% y/y slump in Indian GDP in Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) is one of the largest peak-to-trough falls anywhere in the world. With the country still battling with its coronavirus outbreak, the rebound in... 31st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s T-Bill purchases yet to boost the money supply The Bank of Japan’s recent purchases of Treasury Bills have yet to feed through into the money supply as the government’s deposit account at the Bank has ballooned. That will provide a further boost... 31st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Resilience in Australia’s corporate profits unlikely to last The surge in corporate profits in Q2 happened despite a large drop in sales and mostly reflects the impact of the JobKeeper wage subsidy. With that subsidy being scaled back, corporate profits should... 31st August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Aug.) The latest official PMI surveys showed that the pace of economic growth picked up in August as stronger services activity more than offset a slight loss of momentum in manufacturing and construction. 31st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jul.) While retail sales fell in July, consumer spending should continue to recover over the coming months. Meanwhile, industrial production rose sharply in July and should also rebound further. 31st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico’s mixed signals Argentina’s government formally requested talks with the IMF over a new financing deal this week, but the conditions likely to be demanded by the Fund could prove to be a major sticking point... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fragile EU-Turkey relations, MNB in a bind The Turkish central bank's tightening of monetary conditions has helped to stabilise the lira but the further ratcheting up of tensions with the EU and threat of measures beyond sanctions mean that... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Low oil prices are supporting the recovery China’s economy is benefiting from a favourable combination of strong demand at home but weak global demand for energy and low oil prices. As a result, the current account surplus has jumped to a five... 28th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The further increase in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for August echoes the message from other surveys and high-frequency data that the recovery gained pace in Q3. But sentiment remains far... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
