Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy may have kept growing in Q3 The modest fall in private investment and the continued surge in retail sales set a high bar for economic activity in Q3, when tough restrictions will have resulted in a slump in consumption and... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly QE is coming, tourist reopening pushed back The Bank of Korea this week hinted at further rate cuts and we expect it to also ramp up unconventional policy measures in the coming months. The Bank of Thailand is likely to follow suit – deflation... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly OMOs ramped up, lifeline for borrowers The RBI this week announced new open market operations aimed at stabilising long-term bond yields. We think this is a sign of things to come as the authorities aim to keep government borrowing costs... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Surge in retail sales overstating the wider rebound The recovery in total consumer spending is almost certainly lagging well behind the surge in retail sales. And although the early signs of a recovery have been positive, a coming wave of unemployment... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (Aug.) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in August was smaller than in the previous two months and suggests that although the recovery there continued in Q3, it may already be slowing... 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q2) Data released this morning show that the Swiss economy weathered the crisis comparatively well in the first half of the year. While its fortunes are closely tied to those in the euro-zone, signs that... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Second wave impacts to differ in Korea and Japan Both Korea and Japan are experiencing second waves, but a stronger shift in consumer behaviour in Korea means the outbreak there is likely to have a larger impact on growth. As such, we’ve revised... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update How are the states faring? While some of the early epicentres of the coronavirus outbreak in India now appear to be getting infections under control, cases are rising quickly in several states that avoided an initial surge... 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q2) Both machinery and equipment investment as well as construction investment fell less than we had anticipated in Q2 which suggests that the contraction in GDP wasn’t as deep as we thought. 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordics top the class with their virus responses While Sweden’s economy got off relatively lightly in H1 thanks to the light-touch lockdown, Norway and Finland saw even smaller falls in activity at a lower human cost. Nonetheless, the success of the... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Low interest rates will be the new normal in Russia The neutral interest rate has become one of the hot topics in Russian monetary policy over the past year and the downward revision to the central bank’s estimate of the neutral rate in July marks the... 26th August 2020 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Update How reliable are the high frequency indicators? With the so-called “easy” part of the economic recovery probably coming to an end, the next leg is likely to be slower, particularly if like overseas, the UK suffers a renewed surge in virus cases and... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP Q2 2020 (2nd Est.) & Ifo Survey (Aug.) The second estimate of Q2 German GDP confirms that all elements of domestic demand except government spending fell sharply. A big rebound in Q3 is already baked in the cake, but survey evidence... 25th August 2020 · 2 mins read
