Canada Economics Weekly Trigger warning Research from the Bank of Canada suggests that half of all variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgage holders have now hit their so-called trigger rates, which means their payments will rise. This is one... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Event China Drop-In: zero-COVID at the limits – domestic and global consequences 1669734000 As China's new infection numbers hit a record, its zero-COVID policy is coming under severe strain.
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand will enter prolonged recession We already predicted that New Zealand would enter recession a month ago and the RBNZ’s determination to push the economy off a cliff to get inflation under control means the downturn will be even... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ tensions, US-Saudi relations, Saudi-Argentina The volatility of oil prices has highlighted the uncertainty over the current OPEC+ oil output agreement and adds to our view that, with tensions already reportedly strained between members, the... 24th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Past peak inflation – what now for EM policymakers? 1669906800 Inflation appears to have finally peaked for emerging markets – but how quickly will price pressures now ease, and what will that mean for the 2023 outlook?
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of resilience, but recession still likely Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in... 24th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Nigeria slowed to 2.2% y/y in Q3 as woes in the oil sector intensified and key parts of the non-oil economy, such as agriculture and manufacturing, performed poorly. Even with pre... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update When will EM central banks turn to interest rate cuts? Monetary tightening cycles in EMs are advanced relative to DMs, and are now drawing to a close in many countries. Elevated inflation will mean that policy will stay tight over the coming months, but... 24th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in November does not change the big picture that the German economy is likely to contract in Q4. 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (November) 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2022) November’s flash PMIs point to further weakness in the manufacturing sector, corroborating firms’ forecasts. At the same time, services activity appears to be struggling due to the rapid rise in... 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued downturn and easing inflation November’s flash PMIs were a mixed bag, with unexpected increases in Europe and a sharp fall in the US. However, the headline indices are now at levels consistent with falling activity in all major... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recession odds rising Despite the resilience evident in the latest round of hard data, our recession tracker models suggest the odds of a downturn next year are still rising. 23rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
