Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 22) The huge jump in Q3 GDP will prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to press ahead with another 75bp hike in February, adding to our conviction that a recession lies ahead. 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update What could go wrong in 2023? As several forecasters now seem to share our view that the economy will suffer a moderate recession next year, in this Update we discuss the risks that could result in a much deeper downturn. 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) The strong rise in manufacturing sales in October was largely due to a jump in refined petroleum prices. Manufacturing sales volumes were unchanged and the business surveys point to outright falls... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Peru engulfed in chaos Peru’s newly-inaugurated President Boluarte’s call to bring forward the next general election to 2024 has failed to pacify protesters who took to the streets following the impeachment of President... 14th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Oct.) October’s hard activity data out of South Africa showed the economy’s strong performance in Q3 did not last into Q4. Industrial sectors, in particular, faltered. As headwinds mount, we expect a sharp... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) Industrial production in the euro-zone declined by 2.0% m/m in October with all the largest economies showing a reduction in output. While output held up better than we had expected in Q3, this is... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q4 2022) & Machinery Orders (Oct. 2022) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is going from strength to strength, the outlook for the manufacturing sector continues to worsen. Meanwhile, machinery orders were flat in... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q4 22) & Machinery Orders (Oct. 22) 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Rate cuts in 2023 as growth slows Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (December) The further recovery in the ZEW in December confirms that sentiment in Germany has improved a bit, but it remains at a very low level and we still think Germany is now already in a recession. 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Ghana secures $3bn IMF deal The news that Ghana has secured a $3bn staff-level agreement with the IMF will go some way to easing the country’s economic crisis, but the government still needs to clear a number of hurdles to put... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) Coming on the back of yesterday’s larger-than-expected rise in GDP in October, today’s news that the labour market is loosening only gradually and wage growth continues to accelerate might further... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) The large increases in both industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in October provide clear signs that activity is holding up well despite the various domestic and external headwinds. But we... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
