Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) Turkey’s activity figures for July showed m/m declines in both industrial production and retail sales and suggest that the period of strong growth during the summer may be coming to an end. And with... 13th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE economies hardest hit by Europe’s energy crisis In this Update, we analyse the impact of surging energy prices in Europe and show that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies are the most vulnerable. The share of household disposable... 12th September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response GDP & International Trade (Jul.) The disappointingly small rebound in real GDP in July suggests that the economy has little momentum and is probably already in recession. The government’s utility price freeze is unlikely to change... 12th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hike it till you break it The Bank of Canada’s hawkish communications this week, alongside its 75bp policy rate hike, suggest that it remains unfazed about the downside risks to activity and that it initially favours a 50bp... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt, SA data and stimulus, election challenges Analysis from the IMF this week suggests that, even with debt relief in the pipeline, putting Zambia’s public debt on a sustainable footing will be a tall order. Meanwhile, data this week have raised... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will pivotal CPI data sway hawkish Fed? In the run-up to the Fed’s next policy announcement on 21 st September, the release of August’s consumer price data next Tuesday could still be pivotal in determining whether the Fed will follow the... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NS1 halted, Russian energy price cap, NBP ends hikes? The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline by Russia presents clear downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the G7 agreement to cap... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Central banks in hawkish mood The ECB isn't the only European central bank in hawkish mood - we expect aggressive rate hikes from the SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank later this month. Meanwhile, this weekend's general election in... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession on the cards, but ECB goes big regardless The ECB delivered a chunky 75bp rate hike this week and signalled more large rate rises are to come even as it acknowledged that the euro-zone economy was likely to fall into recession. That’s... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted disappointing growth of 0.4% m/m in July as stronger automobile output was partially offset by weakness elsewhere. More timely indicators suggest that, the auto... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New Indonesia forecasts, tourism to support Thai baht We are adjusting our inflation and policy rate forecasts for Indonesia in response to the recent fuel price hikes. Meanwhile, the recovery in Thailand’s tourism sector is gathering pace. This should... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update A closer look at the diverging activity surveys We think the S&P Global composite PMI’s prediction of an imminent plunge in GDP will prove well wide of the mark, with the latest hard data pointing to growth of 3% annualised in the third quarter. At... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Utility price cap cuts inflation, limits recession and lifts debt It seems that the size and structure of the Prime Minister’s policy to freeze utility prices is broadly as expected and will reduce inflation and limit the size of the recession. But it will come at... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Aug. 2022) The muted uptick in current readings in August’s Economy Watchers Survey indicates that the economy was still weighed down by the record Covid-19 wave last month, while buoyant outlook readings point... 8th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul. 2022) The record fall in Australia’s trade balance partly reflects bad weather that held back coal exports, but the recent fall in the iron ore price hasn’t fully fed through so export values will continue... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Truss stamps down on inflation The possible policy of the new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, to freeze the utility price cap at £2,500 until sometime in 2024 will dramatically lower the near term path for CPI inflation. Rather than... 7th September 2022 · 8 mins read
