Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set to slow further The EM manufacturing PMI broadly plateaued in November, but the surveys remained weak in parts of Central Europe and recorded sharp declines in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. On the bright side, price... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show industrial downturn easing supply shortages The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial production is contracting, albeit with some signs of a slowdown in the pace of contraction in Europe. Product shortages have diminished... 1st December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.0 in November, the lowest reading since the early stages of the pandemic, from 50.2, leaves it at a level consistent with a stagnation in broader... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2022) The weaker-than-expected Brazilian Q3 GDP growth figure, of 0.4% q/q, highlights that the weakening global economy and higher interest rates are bringing the recent period of strong growth to an end... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI increased in November, to 52.6, but underlying activity in the sector is likely to remain subdued as the combination of sustained power cuts and fiscal and monetary... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag, but suggest that weakening demand and the fading boost from easing supply shortages has begun to take a heavier toll on industrial sectors in... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs across the region fell further into contractionary territory in November, driven by a sharp decline in the employment index. We expect conditions to remain subdued as weaker global... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in November and continues to buck the weaker regional trend. The survey also indicates that price pressures are easing, reinforcing our view that the RBI is now in a... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI edged up in November but remained weak. Taken together with the official survey published yesterday, they suggest that downward pressure on industrial activity intensified... 1st December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) The October retail sales and industrial production data for Russia tell more of the same story: an economy that has passed the worst of the downturn, but that is desperately struggling for momentum... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s COVID outbreak: your questions answered We hosted an online Drop-In yesterday to discuss China’s COVID outbreak and its domestic and global implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM GDP: rebound in Q3, but headwinds building EM GDP rebounded in Q3, but this is unlikely to be the start of a sustained upturn. Headwinds in the form of high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand will drag on growth in the... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) While base effects caused a sharp slowdown in headline GDP growth in India in Q3 (Q2 of FY22/23), growth held up well in quarter-on-quarter terms. However, there are signs in more timely activity data... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
