UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Although June’s retail sales figures were boosted in some areas by the extra Jubilee bank holiday and dragged down in others, the underlying trend is that the surge in prices is weighing on sales... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly New Covid wave, more balanced inflation outlook The government so far hasn’t responded to the surge in new virus cases to a record high with any restrictions, but the slowdown in mobility suggests that consumer spending will soften regardless... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jul. 2022) July’s PMIs suggest that the manufacturing sector is slowing as demand weakens, while the latest Covid-19 is starting to hit the services sector. 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession threat broadens The outlook for the world economy has darkened again and we have reduced our forecasts for all major economies, leaving them further below the consensus of economists. We now anticipate recessions in... 21st July 2022 · 49 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB embarks on treacherous rate hike cycle The ECB’s 50bp rate hike today is likely to be the first move in a sustained interest rate hiking cycle which we think will bring the deposit rate to around 2% next year. We also think the Bank will... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak leu not a silver bullet for Romania’s CA deficit Romania’s current account deficit is likely to rise to almost 9% of GDP this year. While a weaker currency would help to reduce this shortfall, structural reforms are needed to boost competitiveness... 21st July 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Commodities boost unwinding High energy and agricultural prices helped to cushion Latin American economies over the first half of the year, but the second half will be much more challenging. As growth slows, fiscal concerns are... 21st July 2022 · 25 mins read
India Chart Pack Demographics to remain an important growth driver The latest population projections released by the UN this month show that India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023 (see Chart 1), a touch earlier than previously expected... 21st July 2022 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to remain muted in H2 The incoming activity data now show clearer signs of weakness, particularly in the most interest-rate sensitive components of spending. But there are still few signs of that moderation morphing into a... 21st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil fuelling a gulf in growth The spillovers from the war in Ukraine are driving a divergence in the region’s outlook. Higher oil output and looser policy will drive above-consensus GDP growth in the Gulf this year and next... 21st July 2022 · 25 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Economy on the mend but still limping Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic hit from lockdowns had largely reversed in June. But infection numbers are ticking up again. And even if another large-scale virus wave is... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) The weak set of Polish industrial production and retail sales figures for June provide the strongest evidence yet that the economy is in the midst of a sharp slowdown. It is very likely that GDP... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes and recessions loom large The near-term economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months and Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark are set for mild recessions in late 2022 and early 2023. This is partly a function of external... 21st July 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack RBA to hike rates more sharply than most anticipate The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the Bank debated a smaller 25bp rate hike but ended up hiking rates by 50bp. Those minutes also included a discussion of the level of the neutral... 21st July 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Sharp slowdown in store as storm clouds gather Economies in Emerging Europe were resilient in the first half of this year, but the outlook has deteriorated markedly as headwinds have strengthened. Inflation is likely to continue rising and we... 20th July 2022 · 26 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increased risk of recession The Bank’s aggressive policy tightening will weigh heavily on domestic demand, with consumption growth set to slow sharply while residential investment plunges back to pre-pandemic levels. There is... 20th July 2022 · 20 mins read