Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Full impact of higher interest rates hasn’t been felt yet According to RBA estimates, household interest payments jumped from 5.1% of disposable income in Q1 to 6.9% last quarter and we expect them to reach 12.5% by end-2023. With household debt around... 21st December 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead The sharp slowdown in EM GDP growth seen in 2022 is likely to be followed by further weakness across most of the emerging world in 2023. Sluggish growth and falling inflation will at least allow... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales volumes are struggling for momentum and, with the services spending indicators also showing some weakness, household consumption may be heading for a second consecutive quarterly... 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Core inflation still rising The past few weeks have brought mostly good news on the inflation front, with the headline rate dropping back in most countries in November. Less encouragingly, however, core inflation has continued... 20th December 2022 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown underway The performance of African economies diverged early this year, but the latest data provide clearer signs that growth across the region is now slowing. Economic weakness seems most pronounced in Ghana... 20th December 2022 · 10 mins read
Event The World in 2023 - What to Expect in Advanced and Emerging Economies 1673337600 Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and colleagues from across our macro services held a special briefing on what to expect from major DMs and EMs in 2023.
Europe Economic Outlook Recession will do little to dampen price pressures We think the euro-zone is now at the start of a recession, driven by high inflation, tightening financial conditions and weak external demand, and anticipate two quarters of contraction followed by a... 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE central banks still a long way from turning to cuts Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe have left interest rates on hold over the past month or so but their communications have continued to strike a relatively hawkish tone. Hungary’s... 19th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Region’s vulnerabilities crystallising The challenging external backdrop means that growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow in 2023, and by much more than most expect. Currencies are likely to weaken and public debt fears will... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The further increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in December and the general improvement in the surveys over the past two months suggests the outlook for the German economy has improved. But we... 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (December) 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest activity contracted in Q4 December’s flash PMIs suggest that the economic downturn in Q4 in Europe might not be as bad as previously feared. But the PMI fell sharply again in the US. And the surveys are still consistent with... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2023 – Key themes and possible surprises The three main economic themes of 2023 will be falling inflation, peaking interest rates and a recession. Together they add up to a tough year. Things would be much tougher if inflation surprised... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) The flash PMIs for December are consistent with our view that the economy is probably in a recession, although a relatively shallow one at the moment. While the price indices suggest that inflation... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly What the end of zero-COVID in China means for Asia Chinese authorities appear to have given up on efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 much earlier than we had previously anticipated. There may be some disruption to China’s industrial sector in... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
