CE Spotlight The macroeconomic effects of fracturing Fracturing of global economic and financial ties will lead to shifts in supply chains, and reduced technology and investment flows between US- and China-centred blocs over the coming decade... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Sep.) In light of the Fed’s increasingly aggressive monetary tightening, we now think the economy is headed for a mild recession early next year. Our composite tracking models support that forecast, with... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Modest recession could morph into something worse The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Aug.) The 2% year-on-year decline in euro-zone retail sales in August will probably look mild by the end of the year. Measures of consumer confidence point to sales falling much further, which seems quite... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Oct.) India’s PMI readings moderated in September but the more important point is that they still indicate healthy growth in both manufacturing and services. The RBI will remain comfortable tightening... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Recession will add to disinflationary pressure We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Update Higher interest rates to trigger a deeper recession If interest rates rise from 2.25% to 5.00%, as we now expect, we think the economy will suffer a deeper recession involving a 2% peak-to-trough fall in real GDP. That may result in the unemployment... 5th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in August wiped out July’s gains and the sector may have been a drag on the economy over Q3 as a whole. That said, the surprisingly strong surveys... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany €200bn fiscal shield won’t prevent recession Germany’s huge off-budget facility designed to compensate households and businesses for the increase in energy prices is bigger than measures announced elsewhere. However, we don’t expect actual... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Sep.) The final euro-zone PMIs for September suggested that price pressures in the region are not yet starting to ease, even as activity appears to be in decline. We think some economies, including Germany... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation to fall back more sharply in 2023 Continued worries about inflation mean the central bank (BoK) in Korea still has further work to do, and we are sticking with our view that the BoK will raise interest rates by at least 50bp between... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the outlier In a difficult global environment, Japan's economy has benefitted in recent months from a reopening boom in consumption and the easing of supply shortages in industry. Those tailwinds will soon fade... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The batch of PMIs for September continued to paint a picture of economic divergence between the Gulf economies and the rest of the Middle East and North Africa. With fiscal policy set to be loosened... 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing downturn to deepen in Q4 The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry has already weakened significantly and is set to perform worse in the coming months as high inflation and rising interest rates take their... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The sharper than expected fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.9 in September, from 52.8, leaves it consistent with GDP growth of just 0.5% annualised. The weakness in activity is helping to ease... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
