Canada Economics Update Housing activity weakening but not collapsing The latest data suggest that the broader housing sector is coping relatively well with higher interest rates. While housing starts and renovations spending are starting to decline from elevated levels... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack RBI’s CBDC may struggle for relevance The RBI this month asked four public-sector banks to trial its central bank digital currency (CBDC) before year-end, keeping to the timeline that it set out when plans were first announced in the FY22... 21st September 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The industrial production and retail sales figures for Poland for August show that economic activity has started to recover after suffering contractions in Q2. But this recovery is unlikely to be... 21st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria oil output, Kenya subsidies, Zambia debt The fall in Nigeria’s oil production in August to a 50-year low, coming alongside the recent drop back in oil prices, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy’s prospects. Elsewhere, Kenya’s... 16th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Peak rates likely to be lower in Canada We still expect the peak in interest rates to be markedly lower in Canada than the US, as household debt is a lot higher, labour market conditions are weaker and there is scope for a much bigger drop... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Can the government hit a new 2.5% growth target? In his mini-Budget slated for next Friday, the new Chancellor reportedly intends to set an official target of raising real GDP growth to 2.5% a year. But with productivity growth and labour force... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, slow recovery in Sri Lanka The continued weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen 15% against the US dollar since the start of the year, has become a growing concern for policymakers and is another reason to think the... 16th September 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker growth will bear down on inflation soon The economic data this week suggest that slowing activity growth isn’t yet putting downward pressure on core inflation, which is likely to see the Fed remain in hawkish mode at its meeting next week... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More evidence of stagflation, but no gas price cap yet Figures released this week brought yet more evidence that the euro-zone is heading for recession. But given that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong, we doubt that will stop the ECB from... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Stable inflation expectations little comfort for Riksbank Even as Swedish headline inflation surged again in August, with the core rate hitting its highest level since late 1991, the stability of long-term inflation expectations will provide some comfort to... 16th September 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The weakness in August’s retail sales volumes figures suggests that the downward momentum is gathering speed and supports our view that the economy in already in a recession. But that won’t stop the... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Aug.) China’s economy held up slightly better than anticipated last month, but momentum still weakened relative to July amid renewed virus disruptions and factory closures due to power shortages. September... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) Manufacturing output edged up by 0.1% m/m in August, as notable gains in petroleum & coal, machinery and electronics were partly offset by a drop back in motor vehicles and parts. With global... 15th September 2022 · 3 mins read
