Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Corporate FX debt risks in Turkey, EU fund hopes Recent plans announced by the Turkish authorities to restrict access to lira-denominated loans to corporates with large FX holdings add to the growing risks stemming from corporates' large FX debts... 1st July 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in confidence not enough to rule out aggressive rate hikes Signs that business confidence has started to ease may provide the Monetary Policy Committee with some reassurance that firms' pricing power will soon soften. But the danger that bigger increases in... 1st July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Mounting signs of a slowdown We learned this week that consumer spending lost more momentum through the second quarter than initially thought, while the incoming survey evidence for June suggests the quarter ended on a weak note... 1st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Rebound in China’s PMIs likely to be a one-off We think that the recovery in China’s PMIs in June was driven by the lifting of virus-related restrictions rather than an improvement in underlying economic conditions. Accordingly, we think that... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (May) The more muted rise in unsecured borrowing in May suggests the cost of living crisis and recent plunge in consumer confidence are prompting households to exercise a bit more caution. That adds to... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The drop in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in June signals that the rebound from the floods that hit activity in April lost steam at the end of Q2. The sector was probably a considerable drag on... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Manufacturing PMIs for June showed further weakness across the region with the exception of Russia, which seems to have benefitted from a shift from imports toward domestic production. There were some... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped back in June, adding to the evidence of a slowdown in the broader industrial sector. Meanwhile although there are tentative signs of price pressures in the sector... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs for June fell back mainly due to the weakness of external demand. We think weaker global growth will remain a drag on exports over the coming months and that the region’s industrial... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery will continue to disappoint The slump in industrial output and the stagnation in real retail sales in May has prompted us to lower our estimate of Q2 GDP growth. While the easing of the lockdown in Shanghai will contribute to a... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI hit a 13-month high in June and points to a jump in output as virus restrictions were lifted and supply chain conditions improved. But it still points to subdued demand... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn to weigh on activity The housing downturn is now in full swing. While that hasn’t prevented a solid rise in consumption in Q2, we think falling wealth will be a drag on consumer spending next year. What’s more, our... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2), Labour Market (May) & Tokyo CPI (Jun.) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is benefitting from the easing of virus restrictions, the outlook for the manufacturing sector is worsening. Meanwhile, the labour market... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum While the apparent contraction in GDP in May appears to have been partly due to temporary factors, it also reflects the impact of the surge in interest rates on housing. With the business surveys for... 30th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Loadshedding and the hit to South Africa’s economy If past experience is anything to go by, deepening electricity supply cuts in South Africa are likely to deal a heavy blow to activity in energy-intensive sectors such as mining and manufacturing... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read