Europe Chart Pack ECB to press on with rate hikes as gas crisis intensifies European gas prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past month, rising to a peak of €340/MWh before falling back to around €240 to leave them about 50% higher than at the time of the ECB’s... 7th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The 0.8% q/q increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 will be as good as it gets for a long time. A recession looks inevitable in the coming quarters and the subsequent recovery is likely to be sluggish. 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (July) German industrial output fell a bit less than anticipated in July but that was mainly due to a rebound in construction activity, while there were signs that manufacturing production is starting to be... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2 22) The 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s Q2 GDP was broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations and won’t move the needle in terms of the size of the next rate hike. 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update India leading EM rise up the world rankings Emerging markets will account for more than half of global GDP within the next decade. Headlining this, India is on course to become the world’s third largest economy by 2030. And EMs with rapid... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Utility price freeze an effective but expensive sticking plaster If the new Truss government implements a freeze on domestic gas and electricity prices then inflation may peak at around 11% in October this year, rather than 14.5% in January next year as we... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.7% q/q in Q2 and this is likely to be followed by only modest growth in the coming quarters. The outturn might raise second thoughts at the Reserve Bank about... 6th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP Partials (Q2 2022) 6th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jul. 22) Labour cash earnings growth weakened slightly in July as growth in bonuses slowed and further moderation is in store from August with the end of the summer bonus season. 6th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nord Stream shut-off adds to risks facing Germany Gazprom’s decision to shut Nord Stream 1 indefinitely has added to the risks facing Germany’s economy, but the size of the economic damage is still highly uncertain. And the €65bn fiscal package... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The small rise in euro-zone retail sales volumes in July only partly reversed the previous month’s big fall, and with consumer confidence very weak and the final PMI surveys for August suggesting that... 5th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response PMIs (Aug.) August’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in the Gulf economies pulled further ahead of their non-Gulf counterparts even as external demand has weakened on the back of softer global growth... 5th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s IMF deal sealed, reading tea leaves from SA data This week’s rubber-stamping of Zambia’s IMF deal is certainly a welcome step but, with crucial sovereign debt restructuring details unknown, it remains unclear if it will prove to be sufficient to... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: slowing growth bigger concern than inflation Inflation and activity data published over the past few days have surprised to the downside, supporting our view that Korea’s tightening cycle will finish by the end of the year. 2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
