Europe Data Response EC Survey (Sep.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to a two-year low in September with business surveys echoing the message from more timely surveys that activity has slowed sharply. With Russia squeezing gas... 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q3) Vietnam recorded another quarter of strong growth last quarter, and while higher interest rates will act as a drag on demand, strong export demand should ensure the economy continues to outperform. 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russia’s industrial production and retail sales figures for August suggest that the downturn has bottomed out, but activity is only levelling off and a sustained recovery looks some way off. 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB (like BoE) likely to re-start asset purchases soon The UK financial crisis is a self-inflicted wound, but the sell-off in gilts underlines that there is less fiscal room for manoeuvre than there was when policy rates were close to zero. We think the... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade to fall outright amid global recession While world trade was resilient in the first half of this year, there is growing evidence that it has since weakened, and we suspect that it will contract outright in 2023 as the world economy falls... 28th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Underlying inflation pressures easing The fall in headline inflation to 7.0% in August, from 7.6%, was largely due to energy price effects, but there were also some encouraging signs that underlying inflationary pressures are easing. The... 28th September 2022 · 9 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Treading water as virus disruptions return Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that virus disruption and cooling exports caused the economy to stagnate in August. September was likely worse and there is little upside in the near-term. 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2022) The eight consecutive rise in retail sales in August will convince the RBA to hike rates by another 50bp at next week’s meeting. And with the savings rate still well above pre-virus levels, retail... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Aug. 22) The eight consecutive rise in retail sales in August will convince the RBA to hike rates by another 50bp at next week’s meeting. The 0.6% m/m increase in retail sales values in August was a little... 28th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers on alert as EM currencies tumble The ramping up of the US Fed’s hawkish rhetoric has turbocharged the dollar’s appreciation against EM currencies, with most falling by 2-6% against the greenback since the start of the month... 27th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Extra policy tightening to tip the world into recession It is now clear that central banks in advanced economies will raise interest rates even further than our above-consensus forecasts had implied, making the current tightening cycle the most aggressive... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 0.2% m/m fall in durable goods orders in August wasn’t as bad as we expected and suggests that business equipment investment is, for now at least, still holding up in the face of surging interest... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The further big fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September adds to the gloom surrounding the German economy as worries about energy prices and declining household real incomes hit... 26th September 2022 · 2 mins read
