Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s recovery entering a more challenging phase Israel’s economy has been one of the fastest growing globally since the pandemic but there are a number of headwinds that will weigh on activity over the coming quarters. We expect a period of below... 2nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances in better health, but slippage likely South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement published today showed that the government hasn’t (yet) been tempted to spend the windfall from the improvement in the public finances this year. And... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What to expect from South Africa’s MTBPS? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, scheduled for Wednesday, is unlikely to provide the drama that the UK’s “mini-Budget” did, but we suspect that the government will tilt fiscal... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Saudi relations, Lebanon maritime deal, Tunisia crisis The past week has brought further evidence that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has soured after OPEC+ opted to cut oil quotas – Saudi Arabia is clearly leaning away from the US orbit... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM could be the next Sri Lanka? One question that we frequently get asked is which EM could be the next Sri Lanka. While there are several candidates, Tunisia concerns us most. The good news for the rest of the world is that the... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: sharp slowdown, debt restructuring on the cards Ghana’s economy held up well in the first half of this year but high and rising inflation, combined with monetary and fiscal tightening, means that a sharp slowdown is on the cards. Talks with the IMF... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Arrears to rise, but banks will survive The scale of the increase in mortgage rates means that a large rise in mortgage arrears and repossessions is probably unavoidable. But substantial capital buffers mean lenders will be able to absorb... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: monetary tightening now biting hard Higher interest rates are already having an impact in CEE and a large part of the tightening of monetary conditions has yet to feed through. This will add to the headwinds facing growth in the coming... 29th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s economic woes, perpetual power cuts in SA Despite the release of better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth figures in Ghana, the economic outlook remains gloomy as policy tightening to address the country’s debt woes will increasingly bite. And in... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Tango with the IMF, tightening cycles This week’s news that Argentina will receive the next tranche of its IMF deal has caused near-term debt risks to ease. But the Fund has still not addressed the overvalued exchange rate, which could... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Brazil and Colombia The improvement in government budget positions across Latin America over the past year or so has been driven in large part by temporary factors and is likely to reverse before long. As things stand... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Brazil’s spending cap survive? The credibility of Brazil’s spending cap – the country’s key fiscal anchor – has been seriously undermined by tweaks and workarounds since the start of the pandemic. And it looks likely that the cap... 21st September 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: weak growth & lower oil prices pose fiscal risk Mexico’s 2023 budget proposal suggests that officials intend to stick to their tight policy stance, but the public finances are likely to deteriorate if (as we expect) oil prices fall back and the... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MPC meetings galore, Tunisia shortages and debt default Central banks in the Gulf are set to hike interest rates next week in line with the Fed, and we think that the Central Bank of Egypt will join the party and resume its tightening cycle next Thursday... 15th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Glimmers of hope for swifter debt restructurings? Shifts in China’s approach in debt talks with Zambia and planned changes to the Common Framework, such as establishing firm timelines, will go some way to smoothing the debt restructuring process for... 14th September 2022 · 7 mins read
