UK Data Response Money & Credit (Mar.) March’s money and credit data showed that the collapse of the US bank SVB and the takeover of Credit Suisse in early March triggered a small withdrawal of funds from the overall UK banking system... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) Even as commercial property investment has collapsed, net lending to property has been stable at close to zero since the start of the year. That suggests investors are building up war chests to snap... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) The rise in mortgage approvals in March was stronger than consensus expectations, reflecting the reversal of the spike in mortgage rates since the autumn. However, we don’t think that mortgage rates... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Will the BoE take rates above 4.5%? 1683813600 The market has finally come round to our long-standing view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5%, with the Bank of England to likely to deliver another 25 basis point hike when it meets on 11th&
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales continued to recover strongly in Russia in March and suggest that GDP growth may have accelerated in Q1. The economy appears to be receiving a boost from the... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB: hawks rear their heads, but Q3 rate cut in play The Czech central bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected today, but it looks like policymakers set out to strengthen their hawkish rhetoric and downplay expectations of an... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey election preview: the current state of play Parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May will make or break macroeconomic stability in Turkey. As things stand it looks more likely that opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu will become the... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Ingredients in place for lower food price inflation A combination of the falls in global agricultural commodity prices, energy prices and wage growth will soon drag down food CPI inflation from a 46-year high of 19.6% in March perhaps to around 4.5% by... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from the Q1 GDP data Available data for Q1 suggest that the global economy had a better start to the year than previously feared. That seems to have reflected the post zero-COVID rebound in China and its effects, a boost... 3rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Berlin office rents won’t last Berlin offices have been outperforming those in other German markets for some time. But Q1 data suggest that growth has begun to falter, and we think that the recent strength of the market won’t last. 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Turkey fell a bit more than expected in April, to 43.7% y/y, driven largely by a sharp decline in energy inflation, but m/m price growth remained strong and the disinflation process will... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (April) The fact that core HICP inflation edged down in April will not resolve the debate between a 25bp and 50bp hike for the ECB this week – particularly as the core rate is still close to its all-time high... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) The pause in house price falls in April suggested that the reversal of the autumn spike in mortgage rates has allowed prices to stabilise. But with affordability still very stretched by historical... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Total returns stabilise, but too soon to call bottom All-property yields have stabilised since the start of the year and alongside continued rental growth, that means total returns were more-or-less flat during Q1. But, while the worst is over, the... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
