Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) The unexpected strength of euro-zone industrial production in September was largely due to the rebound in vehicles production and distortions affecting Ireland’s data. While vehicle output may... 14th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Construction cooling, fiscal rules and pivots We think euro-zone financial markets are getting ahead of themselves if they are sensing an imminent “pivot” by the ECB following the lower-than-expected US CPI number released yesterday. Indeed, we... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further declines in store for Paris prime retail rents Falls in Paris prime retail rents are set to continue into 2023 as weaker domestic and foreign spending weigh on tenant demand. And while the prospects for both are brighter for 2024, we think the... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (October) The rise in core inflation in Germany in October confirms that underlying price pressure in the country are still building. We expect the core rate to remain well above 2% throughout next year. 11th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising property yields help valuations stabilise Commercial property valuations began to stabilise in Q3, as a large rise in property yields helped offset a further rise in alternative asset yields. And with the reversal of the “mini-Budget” meaning... 10th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK HY corporate bonds may not stay bottom of the class We doubt the recent underperformance of UK high-yield corporate bonds relative to those in the euro-zone will continue given the relative outlooks for monetary policy and economic growth. 10th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How far will Hunt’s Autumn Statement go to appease the markets? 1668700800 Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Jonas Goltermann, a senior economist from our Global Markets team, held a client briefing shortly after the Chancellor’s 17th November statement, to discuss his fi
Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Poland’s central bank (NBP) announced (very late by its usual standards) that it had left interest rates unchanged at 6.75% at today’s MPC meeting, confirming previous comments from policymakers that... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update If it happens at all, ECB QT will be very slow The ECB might start quantitative tightening next year but that’s not guaranteed, and even if it does so we doubt that it will make much of a dent in its government bond holdings. As a result, interest... 9th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Barcelona prime offices to underperform Madrid Spanish office rental values are expected to be harder hit than the euro-zone average as the looming recession weighs on occupier demand and higher interest rates push up yields. However, at a market... 9th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to keep hiking as stagflation intensifies The latest activity indicators show that the economy contracted in October, and the forward-looking measures of new orders and expectations suggest that the downturn will get worse. We have pencilled... 8th November 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Global recession seals real estate downturn In line with changes in our global economic view, we have made significant downgrades to our commercial real estate forecasts for the next couple of years. As a result, we now expect a much bigger... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s increase in euro-zone retail sales is unlikely to be sustained. Falling real incomes and rock bottom consumer confidence suggest that household spending will fall sharply over the winter... 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) German industrial production rose significantly in September but we doubt this is a sign of things to come. With industry facing headwinds from high energy costs, rising interest rates and cooling... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why our euro-zone GDP forecast is below consensus Despite energy price caps and direct support for households, we think euro-zone private consumption will fall further than most anticipate in the coming months, and we expect investment and exports to... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
