Emerging Europe Economics Weekly All eyes on a divided NBP, Israel’s election outcome The divergent views among policymakers at the National Bank of Poland (NBP) make it increasingly difficult to tell whether the central bank’s tightening cycle is coming to an end. Our central view is... 4th November 2022 · 10 mins read
Energy Update Don’t miss the bigger picture in natural gas markets While front-month European natural gas prices have fallen sharply as concerns have eased around shortages this winter, longer-dated futures haven’t fallen by as much. That reflects how difficult it... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Sifting through a week of ECB comments The raft of comments by ECB policymakers this week suggests that further rate hikes are on the horizon, but that the pace of tightening will slow soon. And with officials stressing how difficult it is... 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Peak rates approaching in Norway, Switzerland The Norges Bank shifted to a slower pace of tightening this week, and the latest data on the housing market suggest that there are downside risks to our forecast for the policy rate to hit 3% and stay... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Oct.) As was the case last month, an improvement in delivery times and subcontractor availability drove a surprise rise on the headline construction PMI in October. But a slowing economy and higher... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final euro-zone PMIs for October paint a clear picture of falling activity and sky-high inflation. We expect the ECB to prioritise the fight against inflation and press on with raising the deposit... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update What the latest central bank signals mean for markets The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t buy the BoE’s dovish tilt We’re inclined to agree with investors’ decision to shrug off the Bank of England’s dovish tilt and the suggestion that market pricing is wide of the mark earlier. We still expect Bank Rate to rise to... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Goods price pressures still intense The recent easing of global supply chain problems could put some downward pressure on euro-zone goods inflation soon. But equipment shortages are still a major problem for manufacturers, while their... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q3) The latest RICS Construction Survey showed a rise in workloads in Q3, although the gain was small. Looking ahead, a slowing economy and higher financing costs will soon lead to a cut in activity... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (September) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate to 6.6% in September shows that the labour market remained very tight even as the economy headed towards recession. We expect unemployment to rise in the... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle nearly over Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to slow the pace of rate hikes is the beginning of the end for its tightening cycle. But we don’t expect a pivot towards interest rate cuts next year. 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does recession mean for German prime offices? German prime office rental growth is expected to slow sharply next year as the economy experiences the deepest recession in the euro-zone. Even so, we don’t expect rental growth to underperform as the... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response New Prime Minister will have to work hard to restore credibility 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Black Sea grain deal blow adds impetus to lofty prices Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will exacerbate sky-high prices and tight global supply, and adds to the likelihood that prices hover around historical highs for the... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) The jump in mortgage interest rates is now being felt in house prices, with Nationwide reporting the first month-on-month fall since July 2021. House prices are now set to stay on a sustained downward... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
