UK Economics Weekly 2023 – Key themes and possible surprises The three main economic themes of 2023 will be falling inflation, peaking interest rates and a recession. Together they add up to a tough year. Things would be much tougher if inflation surprised... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December) The flash PMIs for December provide more evidence that businesses in some parts of the euro-zone have become a bit less gloomy about their current situation. But they still point to a contraction in... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest central bank bonanza The last round of major central bank meetings for the year has proven an eventful one, with some surprising messages sending financial markets into another policymaker-induced convulsion. Three key... 15th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update QT won’t stop rates from rising further Today’s 50bp rate hike came alongside hawkish comments which are consistent with our view that the deposit rate will peak at 3%, significantly higher than the consensus forecast and a touch above what... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank eases off the brakes, but may not halt hikes until 4.50% The Bank of England followed the Fed by slowing the pace of interest rate hikes from 75 basis points (bps) in November to 50bps hike today as widely expected, which took rates from 3.00% to 3.50%. But... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The World in 2023: Property prices to plunge Property markets rebounded strongly after 2020, in part boosted by favourable structural shifts brought on by the pandemic. But they have hit the buffers in recent months. And fortunes are likely to... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (15th Dec.) 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Regional office market rents to outperform London Office rental growth in London and RoUK was similar in the third quarter. But as the recession takes hold London firms will have a greater incentive, and opportunity, to make savings from the shift to... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail better placed as yields rise Property yields have risen on the back of higher interest rates and have started to drag materially on values. We expect this to continue in 2023, as valuations are still highly stretched. Given... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) Industrial production in the euro-zone declined by 2.0% m/m in October with all the largest economies showing a reduction in output. While output held up better than we had expected in Q3, this is... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Inflation has peaked, but how far will it fall? The Bank of England can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that CPI inflation has peaked. But with activity holding up and wage growth still strengthening, the 2.0% inflation target is still a long way... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
