UK Economics Weekly BoE should be talking tough on interest rates not wages The Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, came under fire this week for comments that implied businesses should stop raising their prices and workers should stop asking for pay increases . But... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could the investment downturn reach GFC-lows? The slowdown in European investment intensified in Q1 as transactions more than halved year-on-year. This was perhaps unsurprising given the ongoing price correction amid one of the sharpest... 28th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE rate cuts coming into view, FX rally may not last Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe provided firmer signs this week that, with inflation now declining, monetary loosening may soon be on the cards. But there are still clearly big... 28th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update More than pensions to the UK’s stock listings drought In our view, the role of UK pension funds in deterring firms from listing on the London Stock Exchange has been overstated of late. To the extent that higher valuations are the reason firms find a US... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Takeaways from our housing roundtables Alongside the publication of our Q2 UK Housing Outlook this week, we held a series of roundtable meetings for clients in London. Here we sum up our thoughts on three key questions which recurred... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect “risky” assets to fall later this year We think disappointing global growth will be a headwind for “risky” assets in developed markets during the second half of this year. 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate still on track for 4% peak While it is not a done deal, we think the ECB is most likely to raise its deposit rate by 50bp next week. Economic activity has been more resilient and core inflation higher than the ECB anticipated... 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) The EC’s economic sentiment indicator for April remained consistent with the economy expanding at the beginning of Q2. It also suggests that price pressures (though easing) remain high and that labour... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth to slow only gradually Wage growth in the euro-zone is likely to remain above the level compatible with 2% core inflation this year and only gradually return to a more sustainable level thereafter. 27th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) After a weak end to 2022, surveyors reported that occupier demand was essentially flat in Q1. All sectors saw an improvement and that suggests take-up will pick-up in Q2. That said, rental and capital... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has Spain’s economic recovery been weak? Spain’s underperformance since the pandemic can be explained in part by the incomplete recovery in its tourism sector and in part by the sharp fall in real household disposable incomes. That said, we... 26th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation past the peak, but big challenges lie ahead Inflation has finally turned a corner. Headline inflation rates fell in March in all 14 economies that we cover, the first synchronised drop in more than a decade. This partly reflects base effects... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks, but scope for big rate cuts in 2024 The recent resilience in economic activity and stubbornness of inflation is raising market rate expectations, gilt yields, UK equities and the pound. And there is a growing risk that interest rates... 26th April 2023 · 13 mins read
