UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) German industrial production once again held up better than expected in October. But this resilience was driven partly by a recovery in construction which tends to be volatile. We still expect high... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) The largest monthly fall in in the Halifax house price index since October 2008 confirms that the house price correction that we forecast has begun. While mortgage rates have fallen back somewhat in... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) As expected, the headline CIPS construction index retreated in November as falling demand outweighed the benefit of easing prices and an increase in the availability of contractors. As the recession... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tweaking our forecasts: slightly shallower recession We are nudging up our euro-zone GDP forecast slightly to reflect the small improvement in the economic data in recent months and an easing of the energy crisis. Nonetheless, we still think euro-zone... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings – A pivotal year for policy ends 1671116400 The last big central bank decisions of 2022 resulted in another batch of hefty rate hikes – if smaller than recent – but also provided important signals about the direction of policymaking in the c
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) The sharp drop in euro-zone retail spending in October is consistent with our view that – notwithstanding the slight uptick in some business surveys recently – the economy is entering recession. With... 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE focus will shift from pace of rate hikes to level of rates The news that higher interest rates are starting to influence the economy will at some point soon prompt the Bank of England to start thinking more about the appropriate level of interest rates rather... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tide turning or false dawn? The first fall in inflation for seventeen months suggests that the headline rate may now have peaked. However, this is far from certain, and in any case core inflation did not fall and is likely to... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Have we hit peak inflation? There is a good chance that CPI inflation has peaked or will peak before the end of the year. There are even some signs that inflation is becoming less persistent. This may contribute to the Bank of... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House prices start to fall: your questions answered Following the Nationwide data showing a larger-than-expected fall in house prices in November, we hosted an online Drop-In on 1st December to discuss how far prices could fall and what the downturn... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: US vs euro-zone – A tale of two inflation cycles 1670338800 Hopes may be rising that price pressures may finally be easing, but investors risk missing the fact that not all inflation cycles are alike.
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (October) The record-low euro-zone unemployment rate of 6.5% in October is likely to be as good as it gets for the region’s labour market. But the rise in unemployment from here will probably be small. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) The 1.4% m/m drop in house prices in November was far larger than anyone expected, raising the risk that prices fall more rapidly and further in response to high mortgage rates than we forecast. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
