Canada Economics Weekly Peak rates likely to be lower in Canada We still expect the peak in interest rates to be markedly lower in Canada than the US, as household debt is a lot higher, labour market conditions are weaker and there is scope for a much bigger drop... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (July) Although manufacturing sales fell by 0.9% m/m in July, in line with the preliminary estimate, that was a better outcome than we had expected given the more downbeat export data. Furthermore, the... 14th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Is the government to blame for labour shortages? The public sector has been responsible for almost 90% of the rise in total employment since the pandemic and now accounts for the largest sustained share of employment since the early 1990s. The... 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hike it till you break it The Bank of Canada’s hawkish communications this week, alongside its 75bp policy rate hike, suggest that it remains unfazed about the downside risks to activity and that it initially favours a 50bp... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The fall in employment in August was concentrated in the public sector and the jump in unemployment reflected an immigration-fuelled rise in the labour force, so they probably overstate the weakness... 9th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank gives little away as it hikes by 75bp The Bank of Canada remains concerned about the risk of high inflation expectations becoming entrenched but, with the economy now slowing sharply and inflation set to ease by more than the Bank... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jul.) Export volumes rose by more than we expected in July but, with the fall in import volumes painting a weak picture of domestic demand, it still looks like GDP growth will slow sharply this quarter. 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch 75 bp hike despite slowing economy GDP growth and inflation will be lower than the Bank of Canada anticipated this quarter, but the odds still seem to favour a 75bp policy rate hike next week to 3.25%. The risks to our forecast that... 1st September 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2) The weaker-than-expected second-quarter rise in GDP as well as the preliminary estimate of a small fall in output in July confirm the economy is slowing sooner than the Bank of Canada predicted... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Better news on core inflation ahead We expect some of the recent surge in travel services prices to be reversed after the summer which, together with signs that global goods shortages are easing, suggests that core inflation is close to... 30th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Firms’ selling price expectations at 10-month low There was some better news from the CFIB Business Barometer and new home sales data this week, although both still point to weak economic growth. Meanwhile, the fall in firms’ selling price... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Rental boom keeps construction elevated The surge in interest rates so far this year has contributed to a sharp decline in home sales but, so far at least, that has not weighed on construction activity. Housing starts averaged 279,000... 24th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Latest surge in travel prices should soon be reversed The further rise in core inflation in July was largely due to a surge in travel services prices, much of which should be reversed after the summer. Nevertheless, that rise in core inflation, the... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The small gain in retail sales volumes in June appears to have been more than reversed in July. As the Bank of Canada is set to raise interest rates further and there is little reason to expect an... 19th August 2022 · 3 mins read
