Global Economics Update Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Recession a line in the sand for the Bank The Bank of Canada now judges that there is a 50/50 chance of GDP growth turning negative, which caused it to slow the pace of its tightening to a 50 bp hike this week and to hint that it will drop to... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) GDP performed better than expected last quarter but, with the business surveys weakening significantly, growth is likely to slow to a crawl this quarter and we expect a mild recession in 2023. 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Beginning of the end for Bank’s tightening cycle Governor Tiff Macklem shifted his tone notably today, reassuring that the Bank was “trying to balance the risks of over- and under-tightening”, whereas previously the emphasis had stressed that it was... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canadian oil prices underperforming The rebound in global oil prices over the past month has not been matched by those in Canada, with Western Canadian Select (WCS) instead trading closer to $60 per barrel, as the discount between WCS... 25th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Policy rate heading toward 5% The data released this week showed that higher interest rates are yet to have much of a negative impact on construction or consumption and that core inflation is proving stickier than anticipated... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected gain in retail sales in August and preliminary estimate of only a small decline in September show that higher interest rates are yet to weigh on consumption, which is... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Will the Bank of Canada stop hiking sooner than the market thinks? 1666800000 Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, and Stephen Brown, who leads our coverage of Canada’s economy, held a client briefing shortly after the BoC’s October meeting.
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to opt for another 75 bp hike Governor Tiff Macklem has told us that the Bank of Canada needs to see firm evidence of improvements in core inflation and near-term inflation expectations before it slows the pace of its tightening... 19th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The Bank’s core CPI inflation measures were unchanged in September but, as we expected a decline due to more favourable base effects, that increases the odds of another 75bp interest rate hike next... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Oct.) The surge in housing starts to a 10-month high in September casts doubt on our view that there is much worse still to come for residential investment, especially as the recent stabilisation of the... 18th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q3) The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys offer some evidence that aggressive policy tightening is having the intended effects, with widespread fears of recession leading to a moderation in wage... 17th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids UK-style market fallout Canada is unlikely to succumb to the same crisis currently afflicting UK markets, but those problems are a reminder that rapidly rising interest rates have a habit of breaking things. In Canada’s case... 14th October 2022 · 7 mins read
