Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) The 1.7% m/m decline in real manufacturing sales in August more than reversed the gains over the preceding couple of months, leaving volumes at a seven-month low. Admittedly, sales are being held back... 14th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Pivot, pause, tilt? Not yet, despite likely recession The hawkish speech from Governor Tiff Macklem this week suggests that the Bank of Canada has no intention of following the Reserve Bank of Australia in dropping down to a 25 bp hike at its next... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The first rise in employment in four months was not as strong as it looked, as it was driven entirely by the public sector, while the fall in hours worked points to downside risks to GDP growth... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Modest recession could morph into something worse The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The drop in export volumes in August and the large downward revision to the trade surplus in July present downside risks to our already-weak estimate for third-quarter GDP growth of 0.8% annualised. 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record immigration won’t make the Bank’s job easier The accepted wisdom is that strong immigration reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, as it will eventually help to ease labour shortages. But the immediate impact has... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) Strong gains in the natural resource sector will prevent the economy from contracting this quarter but, with the business surveys deteriorating and the global economy facing recession, it looks... 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Underlying inflation pressures easing The fall in headline inflation to 7.0% in August, from 7.6%, was largely due to energy price effects, but there were also some encouraging signs that underlying inflationary pressures are easing. The... 28th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed forces the Bank to do more The hawkish message from the Federal Reserve this week has prompted us to revise up our forecast for the peak policy rate in Canada to 4.0%, even as the latest data suggest that inflationary pressures... 23rd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The fall in retail sales volumes in July leaves them on track for their weakest quarter since the initial pandemic lockdowns in early 2020. With the Bank of Canada’s policy rate hikes still feeding... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing activity weakening but not collapsing The latest data suggest that the broader housing sector is coping relatively well with higher interest rates. While housing starts and renovations spending are starting to decline from elevated levels... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The larger-than-expected falls in headline and core inflation in August suggest that the Bank of Canada will enact a smaller interest rate hike in October, particularly with the labour market now... 20th September 2022 · 3 mins read
