Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales volumes are struggling for momentum and, with the services spending indicators also showing some weakness, household consumption may be heading for a second consecutive quarterly... 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Household net worth squeezed further One third of the rise in household net worth during the pandemic has now been reversed and the further fall in house prices in November points to another deterioration this quarter. Lower net worth... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Dec.) New listings fell in November but, because they are taking longer to sell, the inventory of homes for sale continued to rise. That is one reason to expect house prices to fall further, particularly if... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) The strong rise in manufacturing sales in October was largely due to a jump in refined petroleum prices. Manufacturing sales volumes were unchanged and the business surveys point to outright falls... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s latest hike puts further pressure on housing The Bank of Canada’s 50bp rate hike this week means that variable mortgage rates are now more than 400bp higher than the start of the year. This raises the risk that some will be forced to sell their... 9th December 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the loonie to weaken further against the US dollar The Canadian dollar has underperformed most other currencies over recent weeks, and we expect it to depreciate further against the US dollar over the first half of next year. In view of the wider... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Dovish Bank of Canada points to widening US-Canada yield gap We think the yield gap between 10-year US Treasuries and Canadian Government Bonds will remain wide next year, as we expect the Bank of Canada is nearing an early end of its hiking cycle and will... 8th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Moderate recession to drive inflation lower The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices... 8th December 2022 · 20 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The essentially unchanged level of export volumes in October, despite big gains in agricultural and pharmaceutical exports, suggests the sector is struggling amid weaker global demand. With the drop... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP revisions unlikely to change things for the Bank The national accounts data provided two pieces of good news this week, with revisions to the historical series and stronger-than-expected third-quarter growth leaving GDP higher than expected. While... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The slowdown in hiring in November did not prevent a decline in the unemployment rate, as the labour force contracted. The Bank of Canada will be more encouraged by the fall in the 3-month annualised... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to drop down to 25 bp hike The easing of the three-month annualised measures of core inflation in October and signs of broader disinflationary pressure ahead lead us to think the Bank of Canada will drop down to a 25bp interest... 30th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected gain in third-quarter GDP tips the odds slightly toward another 50 bp interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week. But, with domestic demand contracting for the... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
