Canada Economics Weekly Trigger warning Research from the Bank of Canada suggests that half of all variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgage holders have now hit their so-called trigger rates, which means their payments will rise. This is one... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The small fall in retail sales volumes in September appears to have been reversed in October but, more generally, sales volumes have been little changed for the past six months and the low leve of... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly October CPI data offer some encouragement Although the data this week showed renewed rises in the annual rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation in October, our calculations show that the timelier 3-month annualised measures both declined... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov.) The plunge in new home sales in Toronto in September points to further falls in housing starts, although there are at least some signs that the worst may be behind us for home sales and that the... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Although the annual rates of CPI-median and CPI-trim edged up in October, the 3-month annualised rates that the Bank of Canada is now focussed on declined. As that for CPI-median is now in the 1% to 3... 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) Manufacturing sales volumes edged down in September and, with the business surveys continuing to weaken and inventory levels now looking unusually high, they are likely to fall further. We expect... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank wants to see rise in unemployment Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said this week that the unemployment rate will need to rise to help restore price stability, but he also played down the significance of the strong gains in... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the coming recession compare to the past? The impending global recession will see sluggish growth or outright contractions in GDP in most major economies, with Europe faring the worst. Accounting for changes in trend growth over time, we... 7th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s dovish tilt looking premature The modest fiscal loosening unveiled in the Fall Economic Statement this week is unlikely to move the needle much for monetary policy, but the surge in employment in October and the acceleration in... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The 108,300 surge in employment in October makes a mockery of claims that the economy is on the cusp of recession and, with wage growth accelerating sharply despite favourable base effects, that means... 4th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Fiscal restraint keeps markets on side The $6bn in new federal spending measures for this year, as outlined in the Fall Economic Update, amount to just 0.2% of GDP and will have little impact on the economic outlook or monetary policy. By... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Sep.) & Building Permits (Sep.) The improvement in crop yields boosted export volumes in September, but the strength of exports was overshadowed by the also-reported record slump in building permits, which suggests that higher... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
