Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) CPI inflation edged up to a new cyclical high of 6.8% in April, from 6.7%, and, together with the more marked increases in core inflation, that almost guarantees the Bank of Canada will hike its... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Fall in house prices to contribute to lower CPI inflation The 10% fall in house prices that we expect over the next 12 months will also help to pull down CPI inflation, via its impact on shelter costs. Admittedly, shelter inflation is unlikely to decline... 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The rise in manufacturing sales in March was entirely due to higher commodity prices, but the orders data and the business surveys suggest that sales volumes will do better in the coming months. 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Gasoline price jump to drive CPI inflation above 7% The unexpected further jump in gasoline prices, reflecting a sharp widening of refiners’ margins, means we now expect headline CPI inflation to rise above 7% in May. While the rise in refiners’... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Will a housing downturn crash the economy? We expect higher interest rates to cause a 10% fall in house prices over the next 12 months and an even steeper fall in residential investment. With the rest of the economy still recovering from the... 9th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Cracks in housing market risk turning into chasms The slump in home sales in April, combined with the unexpected fall in hours worked, point to downside risks to GDP last month. While hours worked are set to rebound in May, there is likely to be much... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in employment growth and large decline in hours worked in April present downside risks to GDP growth but, as temporary factors seem to explain much of the weakness, there is likely... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Spring market brings deep freeze for home sales The steep declines in home sales across Canada’s major cities reinforces our view that a downturn in residential investment will prevent the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates by as much as... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The trade surplus unexpectedly fell in March, despite the surge in commodity prices, but it is likely to rise in the second quarter, as export volumes recover while import volumes drop back. Canada... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Business surveys strong, but clouds gather for housing The CFIB Business Barometer remained very strong in April and seems to bode well for the short-term outlook, but signs of a sharp slowdown in the housing market suggest that higher interest rates may... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The jump in GDP in February means that, despite the Omicron wave, the economy was even stronger than expected in the first quarter. But signs of a sharp slowdown in the housing market in April suggest... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Productivity rebound to offset stronger wage growth The further fall in the unemployment rate in March, to a multi-decade low of 5.3%, raises the risk that a sharp acceleration in wage growth will exacerbate inflationary pressures, at a time when... 27th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation surge to prompt more rapid tightening The surge in consumer price inflation in March leads us to think that the Bank of Canada will now rapidly raise its policy rate to 2.5% by the end of the year. 23rd April 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What the evolving monetary policy outlook means for bonds This Update presents our revised forecasts for the yields of developed market (DM) long-term government bonds, in light of recent market moves and changes to our expectations for monetary policy. 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) Retail sales were basically unchanged in February, but this understates the strength of total spending following the lifting of the Omicron wave restrictions on high-contact services. As consumer... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Tighter policy to drive GDP growth below potential Economic activity should expand at a strong pace this year but, with the Bank of Canada set to tighten policy rapidly, we expect the quarterly pace of GDP growth to slow below potential in 2023, as... 21st April 2022 · 19 mins read
