Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Despite the further rise in inflation to a multi-decade high, the June data showed some encouraging signs, with the monthly price gains slowing across almost every category. Inflation will begin to... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul.) The further decline in home sales in June and the record monthly fall in house prices did little to affect construction activity, with housing starts once again outperforming expectations last month... 19th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s shock tactics carry significant risks The Bank of Canada justified its 100 bp interest rate hike on the basis that front-loading hikes has historically raised the chance of a “soft landing”. With the pace of house price declines already... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales volumes plunged in May amid renewed semiconductor shortages, but there is scope for a more sustained rebound over the second half of this year, despite the worsening global... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank pulls out all the stops with 100 bp hike The Bank of Canada’s 100 bp hike today and its accompanying communications have led us to upgrade our forecast for the policy rate to 3.5% by the October policy meeting, from 3.0%. As the commodity... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation expectations too high for the Bank The falls in commodity prices this week point to some relief ahead for CPI inflation, but the Bank of Canada will be more focused on the rises in long-run inflation expectations and wage growth in the... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The surprise fall in employment in June appears to reflect seasonal effects and, with wage growth surging to 5.2% y/y, the Bank of Canada will follow through next week on its hint of a larger 75 bp... 8th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) The recent falls in commodity prices mean that, after soaring in May and probably improving again in June, the trade surplus will decline in the coming months. Nonetheless, as we expect commodity... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A more forceful 75 bp hike The recent acceleration in wage growth and rise in long-run inflation expectations leave little doubt that, despite the drop back in commodity prices, the Bank of Canada will follow through with a... 6th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2) The increase in long-run inflation expectations in the Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys further raises the probability of the Bank enacting a larger 75 bp interest rate hike next... 4th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum While the apparent contraction in GDP in May appears to have been partly due to temporary factors, it also reflects the impact of the surge in interest rates on housing. With the business surveys for... 30th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The preliminary estimate suggests that the healthy 0.3% m/m rise in GDP in April was followed by a shock 0.2% contraction in May but, as this appears to have been partly due to temporary factors, it... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Tight labour market pushing up wages The tight labour market is putting upward pressure on wages, with the Labour Force Survey showing a strong 1.0% m/m rise in average hourly earnings in May. While the annual rate of wage growth, at 3.9... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect even higher yields and lower risky asset prices We think developed market government bond yields will rise further while equity and corporate bond prices fall further, as central banks press ahead with tightening and the global economy slows. Drop... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Further rise in inflation cements 75 bp hike The May CPI data showed that inflationary pressures remain acute across the economy, which reinforces our view that despite growing concerns about the housing market, the Bank of Canada will become a... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The jump in CPI inflation to 7.7% in May all but guarantees that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by a larger 75 bp next month, particularly with inflation on track to accelerate to over 8... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
