Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The strong rise in retail sales volumes in April reinforces our view that overall consumption growth will accelerate sharply this quarter but, with consumer confidence plunging in June and the housing... 21st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights to push inflation above 8% The new CPI weights outlined this week mean that inflation will peak at more than 8% in June, which is higher than we previously expected. That further raises the chance of the Bank of Canada... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update House prices to slump by 20% The Bank of Canada’s hawkishness, a widening of mortgage spreads, and news that at least one lender is restricting new loan applications suggest the outlook for house prices is worse than we... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The 0.9% m/m rise in April, combined with a large upward revision to March, means that manufacturing sales volumes have finally risen above their pre-pandemic peak. While the recovery in the motor... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly From one policy mistake to another? Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments this week, even as he presented a report warning of the risks of aggressive policy tightening, leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada is singularly focused... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The 39,800 rise in employment in May drove down the unemployment rate to a multi-decade low and there are now clear signs of the tight labour market pushing up wages. That raises the chance of the... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank risks sending housing into a tailspin The Bank of Canada’s recent communications suggest that it will be unfazed by the second consecutive double-digit drop in home sales in May. This raises the chance of the Bank enacting a larger... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Apr.) Elevated commodity prices were still doing little to lift the goods trade surplus at the start of the second quarter, but we expect it to widen in the coming months as goods imports from Asia drop... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly 50, 75…100 bp? Following its second 50 bp policy rate hike, the Bank of Canada hinted that it will consider an even larger move next month. With CPI inflation heading to 7.5% this month due to the renewed surge in... 3rd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hikes rates by 50bp again and hints at even more The Bank of Canada hiked its policy rate by another 50bp, to 1.5%, today and, after warning that "the risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen", closed the accompanying statement with... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) First-quarter GDP growth slowed to 3.1% annualised, from 6.6%, as the Omicron-related restrictions had more of an impact than previously thought. But the 0.7% m/m increase in monthly GDP in March... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation still rising With core CPI inflation still rising, the Bank of Canada has no choice but to continue hiking its policy rate “forcefully’ back toward neutral. All three of the core measures tracked by the Bank are... 26th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales values were unchanged month-to-month in March, as a further supply-related slump in motor vehicle sales offset a largely price-related surge in gasoline station sales and solid increases... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Another forceful rate hike coming We expect the Bank of Canada to hike its policy rate by another 50bp next week, to 1.50%, and to drop a heavy hint that a final 50bp hike is coming at the following policy meeting in mid-July. We... 25th May 2022 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack More trouble may lie ahead for risky assets We think “risky” assets will continue to struggle over the next year or so, even if a recession is avoided in most major developed markets. 24th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation still rising, as housing slumps The Bank of Canada will have eyed this week’s data releases and market moves with some trepidation. The further acceleration in core CPI inflation in April means the Bank is all but guaranteed to push... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
