Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q4) The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys leave no doubt that higher interest rates are weighing on demand, but still don’t show a convincing moderation in wage and inflation expectations... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) The easing of supply shortages provided a big boost to motor vehicle shipments in November, but this failed to offset falls elsewhere. While there is scope for transportation equipment sales to rise... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly A pivotal week for policy outlook The December CPI data and the Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys, released next week, could have a big bearing on the policy outlook. For the Bank to pause after one final 25 bp... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Employment strength masks worrying signs elsewhere The activity and labour market data imply the economy carried more momentum into 2023 than we expected, but the weakness of temporary employment suggests cracks are showing beneath the surface. 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Resilient labour market may force Bank to do more The resilience of the labour market is a risk to our view that the Bank of Canada will pause its tightening cycle after a final 25 bp hike this month, even as the slump in natural gas prices raises... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The surge in employment in December and renewed fall in the unemployment rate suggest that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again later this month, although the fall in wage growth means... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Shelter inflation set to fall sharply this year Strong rental growth and higher mortgage costs will keep shelter inflation elevated for the next few months, but we expect it to fall sharply over the rest of 2023 as lower house prices feed through... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) Lower commodity prices have now wiped out the goods trade surplus, while the falls in export and import volumes present downside risks to the preliminary estimate that GDP edged up in November. Drop... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong services inflation keeps pressure on the Bank The November CPI data were a mixed bag, with deflationary pressure on goods starting to feed through but strong price rises for several key services. The 3-month annualised measures of core inflation... 23rd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The modest gain in GDP in October and upward revision to activity in previous months suggest the economy was coping well with higher interest rates at the start of the fourth quarter, but the... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation pressures still too strong for comfort The renewed rise in the three-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation in November call into question the idea that the Bank of Canada has already finished its tightening cycle... 21st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Overall inflation pressures were stronger than anticipated in November and the 3-month annualised measures of CPI-trim and CPI-median both increased. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada... 21st December 2022 · 2 mins read
