Canada Economics Focus Lack of supply not the main cause of high house prices Canada has built fewer new homes relative to population growth than other advanced economies, but this alone cannot explain the much larger rise in house prices during the last decade. Looser credit... 1st February 2023 · 14 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The monthly data suggest GDP growth slowed to 1.6% annualised in the fourth quarter, which would be better than initially expected considering the surge in interest rates. Nonetheless, with some of... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Easing labour shortages support Bank’s pause Governor Tiff Macklem stressed on Wednesday that the pause in the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle is conditional on looser conditions in the labour market and a fall in inflation expectations. The... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hints that smaller 25 bp hike likely to be the last The Bank of Canada accompanied its smaller 25 bp hike with new guidance that it intends to hold the policy rate at the current 4.5% while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation revisions won’t change Bank’s thinking The CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core inflation will be revised up next month but that does not change our view that they will fall sharply over the first half of this year. We think the 25 bp... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Is this the end of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle? 1674666000 Join Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, and Jonathan Peterson, Senior
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) Retail sales edged down in November but the preliminary estimate of a 0.5% m/m rise in December, despite the double-digit fall in gasoline prices, implies that sales volumes rose sharply at the end of... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A smaller 25 bp hike with a hawkish message The Bank of Canada is set to raise interest rates by a smaller 25 bp next week. While many will be looking for clues that this will be the end of the tightening cycle, the key risk to market pricing... 18th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan.) The large fall in new listings in December failed to prevent another sizeable drop in house prices, but the improvement in the sales-to-new listing ratio offers some hope that the downward pressure on... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although the annual rates of core inflation remain elevated, the three-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median dropped back to 2.5% in December. Elevated inflation expectations mean that the... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q4) The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys leave no doubt that higher interest rates are weighing on demand, but still don’t show a convincing moderation in wage and inflation expectations... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) The easing of supply shortages provided a big boost to motor vehicle shipments in November, but this failed to offset falls elsewhere. While there is scope for transportation equipment sales to rise... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
