Bank of Canada Watch Bank's downside risks are being realised It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, considering the slight contraction in second-quarter GDP and evidence... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2011) Despite the slight contraction in second-quarter GDP, by 0.4% at annualised rates, we estimate better growth is in store this quarter. A rebound from several unusually severe weather-related factors... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Where's the economy headed? Most analysts now agree that the Canadian economy stumbled in the second quarter, but we think that the current quarter will be better. A rebound from several unusually severe weather-related factors... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's rebound in retail sales was driven by sharply higher auto sales, thanks to earlier-than-normal and more generous price incentives. Since then, however, auto sales have fallen back and other... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly House prices vulnerable to swing in "animal spirits" Canadian house prices have formed a bubble and are vulnerable to a sudden loss of investor confidence. As such, we continue to expect prices to fall substantially over the next few years, which will... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) The slight pick-up in core consumer price inflation in July will now be of little concern to the Bank of Canada. Considering the global recession fears now gripping markets and lower commodity prices... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update New stimulus pledge won’t prevent growth slowdown Canada’s Federal Government has declared that it would be prepared to introduce new stimulus measures, but that it would need to see clear signs of the economy contracting before offering more fiscal... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jun.) June's survey of manufacturers showed that sales fell more strongly than most had expected, by 1.5% m/m. Weaker volumes were again behind this drop, reflecting the temporary disruptions to auto and... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates? Markets have made a dramatic reassessment of the prospects for monetary, judging by the sharp decline in Overnight Index Swaps rates and Canada Government bond yields. In fact, these rates now suggest... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) Reflecting the growing signs of a global economic slowdown, Canada's merchandise exports fell in June. Even so, there are still good reasons to expect that third-quarter export growth will rebound... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Financial turmoil may undermine economic recovery Should the global economy slow more sharply than even our distinctly bearish global forecasts, then we think equity prices in Canada could slide much further into red territory, as would commodity... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Financial market turbulence puts economic growth at risk The possible adverse effects from sharply falling equity prices and lower commodity prices on wealth and confidence have increased the risks that Canada's economic recovery might falter during the... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy stumbles in second quarter The sharp decline in May's GDP was a reflection of several unusually severe weather-related factors that disrupted energy and metal mining production. Although the negative effects on economic growth... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) The small increase in July's employment is not entirely surprising, considering the strong gains over the previous three months. More importantly, the details of the jobs report were fairly... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending slowdown more abrupt than desired The soft patch in household spending may be more than just a blip, judging by the negative effect high energy prices and rising food prices are having on underlying retail sales. Although we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Headwinds, tailwinds and monetary policy The key message in the July Monetary Policy Report: short term interest rates will remain unusually low for a considerably lengthy period. In a technical box towards the end of the report, the Bank... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
