Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's retail sales are another reminder of the negative effects that high energy and rising food prices are having on discretionary consumer spending. Despite the preliminary data showing strong... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun.) The surprisingly sharp decline in June's consumer price inflation figures reduces the impetus for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates. Although the decline was perhaps somewhat of an overshoot... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada poised to raise rates? By dropping the qualification in its policy statement this morning that monetary stimulus will only be withdrawn "eventually", the Bank of Canada seems to be posturing to raise rates. Obviously there... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Businesses poised for employee hiring spree? Businesses are poised for an employee hiring spree, judging by the upbeat second quarter Business Outlook Survey results. Among the firms surveyed from late May to mid-June, the balance of opinion on... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) May's survey of manufacturers showed that sales fell more strongly than most expected, by 0.8% m/m. Weaker volumes were behind this drop, mostly due to temporary factors negatively impacting energy... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Rising financial risks give further reason for pause It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will not offer any hint of imminent rate hikes, while... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing starts may have peaked this year Housing starts reached an annualised 197,000 units in June, up from a revised 194,000 in the month before. Housing starts this high are arguably well above estimates of demographic requirements, which... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) Canada's merchandise trade deficit narrowed trivially in May, from C$0.86bn to C$0.81bn. Even so, we still estimate that quarterly net exports were a significant drag on the economy in the second... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects for a sustained rebound in growth dimming Following 3.9% annualised growth in the first quarter, our latest calculations point to a substantial slowdown in second-quarter GDP growth, to 1.2%. Although we anticipate a partial rebound in the... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Recent employment gains have been respectable, including the 28,400 jobs added in June. The thorny issue, however, is that average hours worked are still well below normal, reflecting the sub-par... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) Canada's monthly real GDP was unchanged in April, held back by a 6.9% m/m drop in motor vehicle production. Growth should pick up again in the next few months, however, as the supply disruptions that... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) The increase in the headline CPI inflation rate to an eight-year high of 3.7% in May, from 3.3%, and the pick up in the core inflation rate to a seven-month high of 1.8%, from 1.6%, will no doubt... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Household slump will dampen economic growth Canada's recent economic performance has been impressive. After suffering a less severe recession than most other developed countries, it has also enjoyed a relatively more vigorous recovery... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising core inflation no reason to hike interest rates The increase in the headline CPI inflation rate to an eight-year high of 3.7% in May, from 3.3%, and the pick up in the core inflation rate to a seven-month high of 1.8%, from 1.6%, predictably led to... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) April's retail sales provide more evidence of the negative effects that high energy and rising food prices are having on discretionary consumer spending. Considering that preliminary data for May's... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter slowdown Domestic demand growth is losing momentum. To make matters worse, disruptions to auto and energy exporters have further dampened overall economic growth in the second quarter. Although we anticipate... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
