Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's international trade data confirm that net exports were a big positive for third-quarter economic growth, which we now estimate at 2.5% annualised. Although there are good reasons to not... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Why we differ from the consensus outlook We have below-consensus forecasts for Canadian interest rates and economic growth next year. The main reasons for the difference relates to our bearish views on rest-of-world economic growth... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Narrowing in the trade deficit probably temporary The employment figures took a lot of the gloss off the news earlier in the week that monthly GDP growth accelerated back in August. It is clear that even if energy and autos production were enjoying a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's employment figures cruelly dashed any optimism that may have built up after the surprisingly good performance in September. Employment fell by 54,000 last month, reversing most of the 60,900... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 0.3% m/m increase in real GDP in August was solely due to the continuing rebound in energy production, which is still recovering from the disruptions in the spring caused by bad weather and... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New forecast consensus still too high Although most private-sector forecasters have revised down their GDP forecasts for Canada, they still seem too high to us. The latest surveys show that consensus expectations for real GDP growth over... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to cut policy rate next year The Bank of Canada now believes there is no need to remove any monetary policy stimulus anytime soon. Even this more dovish position, however, rests on the assumption that the global economy will... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The respectable 0.5% m/m gain in retail sales in August suggests that most households shrugged off the recent volatility in financial markets, despite evidence showing that confidence had fallen. In... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are leading indicators pointing to trouble ahead? With concerns over Europe's fiscal and financial mess dominating the headlines, domestic investors largely ignored the news last week that Statistics Canada's composite leading index suggests that... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) The stronger than expected increase in core CPI inflation, from 1.9% to 2.2% in September, is mostly due to higher clothing prices, reflecting the past run-up in cotton prices. Although core CPI... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Policy outlook depends more on external events We have absolutely no doubt that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. Were it not for the recent declines in long-term interest rates and depreciation of the Canadian... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence resilient to financial market turmoil The latest quarterly business survey responses indicate that the more uncertain global economic outlook is dampening business confidence, but only at the margin. While cautiously optimistic regarding... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Could housing investment growth re-accelerate? The recent surge in multi-unit housing starts indicates that new construction activity could boost overall residential investment growth for at least one or two more quarters, possibly even into early... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales and growth in unfilled orders is encouraging news. This provides further evidence that the economy rebounded in the third quarter, with... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Further signs of over-building September’s annualised housing starts of 205,900, combined with upward revisions to July and August, indicates that third quarter housing investment grew more strongly than we had expected. However... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the loonie's downward trend set to continue? The downward trend in the Canadian dollar, or loonie, against the US dollar over the last two months is broadly consistent with the deterioration in the global economic outlook and the resulting slide... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
