Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation remains benign Last week's drop back in commodity prices was a stark reminder of why the Bank of Canada has largely ignored what looks increasingly like a temporary commodities-related spike in consumer price... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) Following the boost from a rebound in energy output late last year, export growth held up relatively well in Q1, thanks in part to a rebound in the auto sector. March’s trade data suggest the economy... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business sector will buffer construction downturn Stronger business investment in non-residential structures should at least partly buffer the negative impact on the construction sector from an expected downturn in homebuilding and the tailing off of... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's job figures provide some comfort that economic growth held up towards the end of the first quarter, following February's decline in monthly GDP. Given the slowdown we expect in the US later... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's 'V' shape housing recovery Housing investment has rebounded close to historical highs, since the sharp declines during the global financial crisis. Unlike in other countries, this 'V' shape recovery was due to a stable banking... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal election results supportive to economy The Federal election results should be supportive for equity markets, the Canadian dollar and business investment. A pro-business majority Conservative government may also look to forge new bilateral... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble a national problem The latest Teranet National Bank house price report, released last week, provided a timely counterbalance to the growing belief that Canada's housing boom is being driven solely by Chinese purchases... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) After several months of very strong growth, the 0.2% m/m decline in Canada monthly GDP in February is not a major concern. We had anticipated a drop back and even the consensus forecast was for no... 29th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy vulnerable to a commodities correction Sharply higher commodity prices and a runaway Canadian currency are boosting Canada's terms of trade, a key source of growth in incomes and therefore domestic spending. In some cases, specific... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The latest retail sales data add to the evidence that real consumption growth slowed to around 2% annualised in the first quarter, less than half the 5% pace seen in the final three months of last... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) The pass through of higher commodity prices was behind the jump in CPI inflation, to 3.3% in March from 2.2% in February. Considering the temporary nature of these supply shocks, however, we still don... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada's economic update overly optimistic The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report showed that it expects the global economy to grow at a steady pace over the next three years. Closer to home, it assumes growth in the US economy will... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no rush to hike The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning signalled that it is still in no rush to raise interest rates. In particular, it offered no hint that a summer rate hike is coming, supporting... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Debate on corporate tax rates warms up The debate surrounding the merits of corporate tax cuts continued last week, with the Globe and Mail running a front page headline that claimed the reductions already put in place hadn't boosted... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market slack remains high Despite recent signs of a pick up, the economy is still not growing rapidly enough to drive the unemployment significantly lower. In addition, average hours worked remains well below normal levels... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) March's employment report was disappointing to everyone, with net employment edging lower by 1,500 jobs. Although the unemployment rate nudged lower, from 7.8% to 7.7%, this came about by way of fewer... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
