Canada Economics Weekly More regional evidence on house prices New regional house price data show that many metropolitan areas have seen existing house prices rise sharply from already elevated levels this year. We think these facts count towards dispelling the... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) October's international trade data suggest that fourth-quarter exports might be fizzling out faster than anticipated, despite the modest improvements in US economic indicators. The good news is that... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Domestic demand growth continues to slow After unexpectedly contracting in the second quarter, the economy rebounded in the third quarter, with GDP growth of 3.5% annualised, thanks largely to a big boost from external trade. But given the... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada rate cuts still likely next year The Bank of Canada's intention to hold its policy rate at 1% for the time being does not rule out interest rate cuts early next year. External headwinds are likely to blow even harder next year and... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What's up with income growth? The recent slowdown in growth of wages and salaries is fairly notable by historical standards. In the third quarter at least, overall personal income growth was also dampened by the effect of lower... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's surprising 18,600 decline in employment, which followed an even greater decline in the month prior, is discouraging to say the least. Given the deepening global financial crisis, an... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2011) Canada's better than estimated third-quarter GDP, which grew by 3.5% annualised, was due to one-time stronger external trade figures. Final domestic demand, however, grew at a slower pace than we had... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada's next move will be to cut policy rate Although the economy most likely rebounded in third quarter, by an estimated 2.9% annualised, it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. The... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained Our calculations suggest that GDP rebounded by almost 3% annualised in the third quarter thanks to a sizable positive contribution from net exports. Unfortunately, that strong contribution from the... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q3) and payroll employment (Sep.) Further growth in non-financial business profits is one good reason to expect continued growth in business investment and perhaps payroll employment. That said, the uncertainty surrounding what impact... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September's jump in retail sales is further evidence that most households were undaunted by financial market volatility and declines in equity prices last quarter. Despite the drop in consumer... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business confidence key to investment outlook After expanding very strongly in the first half of this year, we now estimate that business investment grew at a tepid pace in the third quarter. Nevertheless, there are good reasons to expect... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) Although the official measure of core inflation, which dipped from 2.2% to 2.1% in October, might stay slightly above the Bank of Canada's target of 2% in the near term, this is not a big concern... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy avoids recession this year Third-quarter GDP growth appears to have picked up to about 3.0% annualised, in part due to the rebound in industrial production, which has fully recovered from the temporary supply disruptions and... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) The stronger than expected increase in September's manufacturing sales bodes well for monthly GDP growth, which we estimate at 0.2% m/m. As such, we have revised up third-quarter GDP growth, from 2.5%... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fussing over federal finances is misplaced We agree that the federal government will take longer than previously thought to return to budgetary balance but, really, so what? Considering that the primary federal budget is already balanced and... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
