Canada Economics Weekly Resurgent housing investment cannot be sustained The recent strength in housing activity indicates that housing investment has made a resurgence and is still contributing strongly to GDP growth. Against a bleak global economic backdrop, this... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November's modest rebound in exports reflected more strongly the recovery in Canadian auto production and better US industrial activity. While exports rebounded, imports fell, with the trade deficit... 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus likely before second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday next week, we still think that further policy stimulus is around the corner and expect its... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus likely before second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday next week, we still think that further policy stimulus is around the corner and expect its... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy likely grew by 2% in fourth quarter Following the rebound in third-quarter GDP, with growth of 3.5% annualised, we estimate that fourth-quarter GDP grew by a more modest 2.0%. Stronger growth in consumption and, to a lesser extent... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook & Senior Loan Officer Surveys (Q4) The latest quarterly business surveys indicate that, while businesses expect sales growth to slow this year, investment and employment should continue to expand. As such, we remain cautiously... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Market rally does not alter Canada's outlook Last week's market rally in commodity prices, which was already flagging before the week ended, does nothing to alter our view on Canada's economic outlook. After growing by an estimated 2.4% in 2011... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December's employment gain of 17,500 jobs, following a slightly larger loss in the month before, was softer than we had expected and was not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from nudging higher... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation poised to fall back in 2012 Consumer price inflation reached almost 3% in 2011, its highest rate in several years, with higher energy and food prices the main culprits. As a result of that pick up in inflation, the increase in... 27th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP By Industry (Oct.)11 October's slightly disappointing GDP, which was largely unchanged from the month before, was not too surprising. Temporary shutdowns and maintenance work dampened output in the energy sector. Apart... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Confidence important during global slowdown Given the worsening global economic outlook and its negative implications for the export sector, confidence among domestic households and businesses will be critical to Canada's overall economic... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October's surprising retail sales, which grew by 1.0%m/m, suggest that household spending began this quarter on a strong footing. For three months in a row now retail volumes have increased strongly... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) We expect the official 'core' inflation rate, which was unchanged at 2.1% in November, to stay well within the Bank of Canada's target range of 1% to 3% in the coming months. As the economy slows and... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining household net worth raises red flags For the past decade households have been on a debt-financed consumption and housing investment spree, reinforced recently by historically low interest rates. This trend has been accompanied by rising... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global slowdown not the only storm brewing for 2012 As we head into 2012, there still appears to be a sense of misplaced confidence regarding Canada's economic fundamentals and growth prospects. With the US economy set to slow again and the euro zone... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) The drop-back in manufacturing volumes, which fell 0.9% m/m in October, suggest that the risk to our monthly GDP growth assumption of 0.1% now lie to the downside. In addition, the decline raises some... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
