Bank of Canada Watch Difficult decisions lie ahead for the Bank of Canada It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will refrain from offering material hints of... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The recent acceleration in monthly GDP growth is being driven principally by a rebound in manufacturing output, as the temporary disruptions that hit autos production last fall start to ease. We still... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Consensus forecast for GDP growth is too high In our opinion, current consensus forecasts that real GDP growth will better 3% annualised over the first half of this year are too optimistic. Admittedly, the monthly GDP data present a fairly solid... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation will remain muted Although the past run-up in agricultural commodity prices will push food prices and headline CPI inflation somewhat higher later this year, we also predict that measures of underlying CPI inflation... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The modest dip in inflation in February was largely due to some strong base year effects, stemming from the spike in prices during last year's winter Olympic Games. We still expect headline CPI... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) January's survey of manufacturers indicates that production continued to recover lost ground early in the New Year. Much of this strength is attributed to the pick-up in auto production. There is no... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February’s employment report was lukewarm, with net employment rising by 15,100. Nonetheless, job creation over the last three months suggests that the pace of underlying economic growth is improving... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) January's merchandise trade data was heavily influenced by activity in the auto sector. Mixed export figures and stronger imports (revisions included) suggest that the first-quarter contribution from... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Leading indicator points to modest GDP growth Canadian economic growth improved to 3.3% annualised in Q4 from 1.8% in Q3. The composite leading indicator points to more modest growth of around 2% annualised over the first-half of this year. Over... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains cautious The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning signalled that it is in no rush to raise interest rates, stressing as before that "any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 National Economic Accounts) The rebound in GDP growth to 3.3% annualised in the fourth quarter, from growth of 1.8% in the third, confirms that the economy regained some lost momentum late last year. Still, we forecast that... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch No interest rate hikes this year It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank is unlikely to change its stance on monetary... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing downturn to hit economy hard Because Canada emerged from the global financial crisis largely unaffected, many Canadians now appear to believe that the economy is somehow invincible. This level of hubris is disconcerting when... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing downturn to hit economy hard Because Canada emerged from the global financial crisis largely unaffected, many Canadians now appear to believe that the economy is somehow invincible. This level of hubris is disconcerting when... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) It is just a matter of time before the recent rapid increases in agricultural commodity prices lead to higher consumer price inflation. Even though the headline CPI inflation rate edged down to 2.3%... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's survey of manufacturers was a disappointment, to us and almost everyone. Not only was growth in shipments much weaker than most had expected, more importantly declines in new and unfilled... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
