The sharp decline in May's GDP was a reflection of several unusually severe weather-related factors that disrupted energy and metal mining production. Although the negative effects on economic growth are temporary, they have led us to revise down our second-quarter GDP growth estimate, from 1.2% annualised to a paltry 0.5%. A gradual recovery in mining and auto production during the third quarter should help furnish a rebound in GDP growth. Whether or not this strength can be sustained, however, remains seriously in doubt.
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