Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation likely to turn down Although underlying inflation appears to have drifted higher over the last several months, this trend still remains well within the central bank's inflation target range. Recent movements in commodity... 4th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2012) Canada's 1.9% annualised first-quarter GDP growth was somewhat stronger than we had estimated (+1.6%), though it fell short of the 2.5% growth that the Bank of Canada had expected in its April... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Payroll employment (Mar.) and Balance of Payments (Q1) March's business payroll figures showed an encouraging 0.8% m/m gain in average weekly earnings and a respectable 48,950 gain in employment. Even so, given the previous declines in payroll employment... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch The long pause in policy interest rate just getting started While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1.00% next week, we think the Bank's upcoming policy statement, due out on Tuesday, will be more downbeat... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's bark worse than bite The rapid appreciation of the Canadian dollar since 2003 has certainly added to the challenges confronting the manufacturing sector. Much more important to this sector's struggle, however, has been... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s strong 0.4% m/m gain in retail sales volumes bodes well for monthly GDP growth, helping to offset the negative impact from the weaker wholesale trade report released last week. Overall, we... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would a Greek euro exit mean for Canada? Although Greece's departure from the euro now seems almost inevitable, that should have only moderate consequences for well capitalised Canadian banks and the Canadian economy, even if the exit from... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) April's surprising rise in the official 'core' inflation figure, which rose to 2.1% from 1.9% in March, partially reflects higher motor vehicle prices and does not suggest higher inflation ahead. More... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) March's 1.9% m/m increase in manufacturing sales volumes supports our view that monthly GDP, after declining by 0.2% m/m in February, rebounded by at least 0.3% m/m the next month. Until we see the... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Canada's outperformance may not last much longer Canada's stronger economic performance over the last few years is largely explained by its stable banking sector, the continued boom in its housing market and, to a much lesser extent, buoyant... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate expectations still too high The recent hiking of market interest rate forecasts, which was prompted by the Bank of Canada's more hawkish policy statement a few weeks ago, looks increasingly like an over-reaction. While rate... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's surprising 58,200 gain in employment, which follows an almost equally impressive gain in the prior month (see chart), is welcomed news given the unusually weak figures that preceded it... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) March's trade figures show an encouraging pick-up in both export and import volumes. With first-quarter growth in exports outpacing imports, we calculate that net trade contributed positively to GDP... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing market continues to raise eyebrows The surprisingly strong surge in housing starts, to 244,900 annualised in April, is yet another sign that Canada's housing market is dangerously overheating. Admittedly, starts have only recovered to... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth set to rise this quarter before fall back We estimate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualised from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. In addition to weaker growth in consumption and business investment in the first... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The unexpected 0.2% m/m decline in February's monthly real GDP means that overall first-quarter GDP growth was probably no more than 2.0% annualised, whereas we had previously hoped for a gain of at... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
