Canada Economics Update Housing correction begins in earnest The decade-long run-up in home prices, which has seen prices rise in some cities by over 150%, is now going into reverse, with national home prices falling in August for the first time in more than... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing bubble bursting? The recent slump in home sales suggests that a housing correction is underway. Assuming that sales continue to trend lower over the remainder of this year, then the typical lag relationship between... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stalling exports adds to economy's woes The surge in Canada's monthly trade deficit to a record high of C$2.34bn in July illustrated that the deteriorating global economic backdrop is beginning to have a very marked impact. The widening of... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul. 12) The surprising 2.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in July, partly due to volatility in aerospace, casts doubt over whether or not the economy actually grew in that month. This weakness... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack High household debt difficult to hurdle Households have been running a financial deficit for over a decade, a significant departure from their normal role as net savers, resulting in a massive increase in household debt. This trend has... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul. 12) July's 1.6% m/m drop in export volumes was weaker than we had assumed, which suggests that net exports might remain a drag on GDP growth this quarter. This increases the chance that economic growth... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The stronger than expected 34,300 rebound in August employment, which offsets a similar decline in the prior month, leaves employment barely higher than three months ago. Dwindling employment gains... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What are the odds of an economic slump? The OECD is now forecasting that growth in the G7 economies will slump over the second half of this year, barely managing to stay in positive territory, before picking up materially next year... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank persists with tightening bias The Bank of Canada continues to insist that its policy rate will eventually need to rise from the current 1.0%, even as the global economic slowdown intensifies and the domestic housing boom shows... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's current account deficit sound? Canada's current account deficit is likely to widen due to slower forecast global economic growth and lower commodity prices. That said, the large net financial deficit of households indicates that... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2012) Canada's 1.8% annualised second-quarter GDP growth was slightly stronger than we had assumed, but was still short of the 2% or more needed to help reduce excess capacity in the economy. With... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Payroll Survey (Jun.) & Balance of Payments (Q2) June's non-farm payroll survey data, which showed solid gains in average weekly earnings and employment, indicate that better second-quarter wages and salaries growth supported stronger consumption... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profit margins under pressure The 4.9% q/q decline in second-quarter business operating profits casts further doubt on the outlook for investment and payroll employment. We certainly expect the decline in profit margins to... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada close to dropping hawkish bias The Bank of Canada's policy statement next week is likely to retain its hawkish bias about the need to raise interest rates. Given the faltering global economy and stalling domestic housing market... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to increase Canada's employment gains during its economic recovery have been far from broad-based and bolstered by an oversized contribution from the public sector. In addition, the official unemployment rate... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economy struggling to absorb economic slack We now estimate that second-quarter GDP grew by an estimated 1.6% annualised, slightly below the Bank of Canada's revised 1.8% prediction. More importantly, economic growth below 2% is not enough to... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
