Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices threaten investment prospects The faltering global economy has driven commodity prices lower, with Canadian oil prices down sharply from levels earlier this year. Although oil prices have risen somewhat over the past week, we... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Moderate consumption growth may not last We calculate that, after falling by 0.8% m/m in April, retail sales volumes rebounded strongly in May. In addition, recent employment gains and lower gasoline prices likely supported retail sales in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) April's 0.3% m/m increase in GDP, thanks to a rebound in the volatile mining sector, was slightly stronger than consensus expectations (0.2% m/m) and supports our view that Canada's economy grew... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (Apr.) April's payroll survey data, which showed a strong increase in average weekly earnings and a modest gain in employment, point to solid second-quarter wages and salaries growth of around 5.0%... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to fall further The recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar is likely to continue this year and next. Our reasons for thinking so are the prospects of further declines in commodity prices and lower expectations... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household borrowing near full throttle Household borrowing has accelerated over the last few quarters, a trend that might continue to push the debt-to-income ratio higher. However, the faltering global economic recovery and drop back in... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) May's slightly larger than expected decline in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 1.8% from 2.1%, provides even greater leeway for the Bank of Canada to refrain from raising interest rates... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Tighter mortgage rules likely to curb housing activity The finance department's surprise announcement earlier today to tighten the screw further on mortgage insurance rules starting in early July is prudent action in our view, given the elevated risks... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) April's disappointing 0.8% m/m drop in retail sales volumes would be disconcerting for monthly GDP growth if it were not for the surprisingly strong growth in wholesale trade data released earlier... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Storm clouds gathering After a slight pick-up in the second quarter, we expect GDP growth to drop back below 2% annualised in the second half of this year, as the strength in housing investment fades and consumption slows... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tumbling commodity prices darken outlook The faltering global economy has sent commodity prices tumbling and it seems unlikely they will rebound. Prices might rally initially in response to any further support provided by global central... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Apr.) April's surprising 0.8% m/m decline in the value of manufacturing sales, mainly due to lower volumes, points to another month of modest growth in GDP, possibly as low as 0.1%m/m. We originally assumed... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing construction likely to keep on giving The latest permit data indicate that condo developments continue to be the main source of strength in new housing construction, which has showed little sign of slowing. Given the lengthy construction... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response LFS(May 12) & Trade (Apr 12) May's more modest 7,700 gain in employment is forgivable given the unusually strong growth in the previous two months. That said, the details were somewhat discouraging. While part-time employment... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Domestic demand prospects looking less sure Canada's economy grew by 1.9% annualised in the first quarter, matching the pace in the previous quarter and, given the recent slump in commodity and equity prices, a substantial pick-up in growth... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada back in dovish mode The Bank of Canada's policy statement, while keeping its policy rate at 1.00%, backed off from the suggestion in the previous statement that interest rates may need to rise. The Bank is now more... 5th June 2012 · 1 min read
