Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) Despite the relatively strong 1.2% m/m increase in manufacturing volumes in December, we doubt that wholesale and retail trade were anywhere near as strong and suspect that overall monthly GDP growth... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What explains the modest gain in new house prices? The price of detached new houses rose by just 2.5% in 2011, slightly below the average annual increase of around 4.0% over the last ten years, which is not that much higher than average annual... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December's 5.1% m/m increase in export volumes reflects the recovery in Canadian auto production and, more generally, improvement in US economic activity. This surprising strength means that net... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing juggernaut on uneven footing The latest building permits and housing starts data indicate that new housing construction is not slowing down much. Although this is good for economic activity this quarter, we are still concerned... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar rally unlikely to persist The Canadian dollar has attracted plenty of attention again as it moved back to parity with the US dollar, reflecting increased optimism about prospects for the global economy. We suspect, however... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Federal austerity not needed Recent remarks by government officials suggest that the upcoming Federal budget, expected in March, will deliver spending cuts that are deeper and sooner than those already outlined in last year's... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's dismal employment gain and rise in the unemployment rate are further signs that the economy ended last year on a weaker footing. Given the headwinds confronting Canada's economy, we doubt... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy stumbles in the fourth quarter November's surprising 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP was caused by a sharp drop in energy output. All things considered, we now figure that fourth-quarter GDP grew by 1.5% annualised, below our previous... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November's disappointing 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP was due entirely to a large drop in energy output. While we expect this important sector to rebound down the road, we now estimate that fourth... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Solid consumption growth sustained this quarter The latest retail sales data indicate that fourth-quarter real consumption grew by over 3% annualised and we think there is a good chance that this strength might be sustained this quarter as well... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (Nov.) November's non-farm payroll survey data, which showed little change in average weekly wages and only a modest increase in employment of 12,261, was somewhat discouraging at first glance. Nonetheless... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November's modest 0.2% m/m increase in retail sales masks the real good news, which was that sales volumes grew by an even stronger 0.5% m/m. For four months in a row retail volumes have increased... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada's outlook rests on weaker footing We think the Bank of Canada's latest projections for economic growth this year and next are too high, mainly because they rely more heavily on sustained growth in household expenditures, particularly... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) December's drop in consumer price inflation, to 2.3% from 2.9%, reflects a trend that is likely to continue this year. As further declines in underlying inflation coincide with slower economic growth... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The rebound in November's manufacturing volumes, which rose by 1.7% m/m, more than offset the previous month's decline and points to monthly GDP growth of around 0.3% m/m, which is broadly consistent... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still likely to cut rates In its policy statement today the Bank of Canada maintained both its key policy interest at 1% and its wait-and-see policy approach. Although the Bank judges that weaker external factors are offset by... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
