Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) February's rise in the official core inflation figure, to 2.3% from 2.1%, will possibly elicit talk of higher interest rates to come. Considering the increasing slack in labour markets and moderate... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s 0.5% m/m increase in retail sales, which was mainly due to sharply higher new vehicle sales, was much weaker than the 2.0% increase we had estimated. The decline in spending elsewhere, which... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Biggest downside risk still growing According to fourth-quarter financial flows and balance sheet data, household borrowing continues to expand at a pretty rapid pace. Even though the debt-to-income ratio may have fallen slightly in the... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) Although the disappointing 1.1% m/m drop in January's manufacturing sales volumes bodes poorly for GDP, the recent surge in auto sales at least points to much stronger retail and wholesale trade... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Vehicle sales driving consumption This year's surprising strength in new auto sales bodes well for first-quarter consumption, which could have risen by as much as 5% annualised. Even if sales faltered a little towards the end of the... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) January's 2.3% m/m decline in exports, mostly due to lower energy and metal prices, trimmed Canada's trade surplus to C$2.1bn from C$2.9bn. More importantly, export volumes, after increasing strongly... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February's surprising 2,800 decline in employment, which continued a run of disappointingly weak jobs reports, is at odds with the better economic growth figures. Although we expect some improvement... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada maintains cautious approach The Bank of Canada's policy statement, which pledged to keep interest rates at 1.00%, retained its cautious wait-and-see approach, despite the improvement in economic data. Given the strength of the... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economic growth likely to slow further in 2012 Canada's economy grew by 2.5% in 2011, down from the 3.2% rebound in the year before. Both households and businesses contributed 1.5 percentage points to overall growth last year. While the government... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2011) Despite the slowdown in fourth-quarter GDP growth, to 1.8% annualised from an upward revised 4.2% in the third quarter, the details on household spending and business investment were more encouraging... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus expected in the second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will maintain its policy interest rate at 1% next week, with the same decision now likely at the next meeting in April too, we still think that the... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Low vacancy rates don't mean what you might think The low rental vacancy rate in Canada is often linked to strong immigration growth and presented as a reason why the current strength in new condo sales and multi-unit construction can be sustained in... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q4) and payroll employment (Dec.) The 9.0% q/q increase in fourth-quarter corporate operating profits, following two consecutive quarterly declines, is encouraging with respect to growth prospects for business investment and payroll... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December's 0.2% m/m decline in retail sales, which was largely due to weaker auto-related sales, follows several months of strong sales. This decline might be the first sign that this recent strength... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness in Q4 GDP growth likely to persist Despite more upbeat fourth-quarter net exports, our calculations suggest that softer business investment, particularly inventories, held back fourth-quarter GDP growth. From what we can tell, growth... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) January's increase in consumer price inflation, to 2.5% from 2.3%, is mostly a reflection of some recent noise in new motor vehicle and electricity prices. Since these prices are also included in the... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
