Canada Economics Update Labour market improvement unlikely to be sustained Labour market conditions have steadily improved since the economic recovery took hold in mid-2009. This improvement, however, is partly due to a sharp rebound in construction activity. Although... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (May) May's payroll survey data, which showed solid gains in average weekly earnings and employment, indicate that second-quarter wages and salaries increased by close to 7.0% annualised, more than double... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Is the housing market enjoying a soft landing? Housing activity is cooling and if this trend continues, as we expect, the typical lag times between activity and prices suggest that house prices might begin to decline outright next year. Given the... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's 0.7% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes, paired with last week's positive wholesale and manufacturing volumes figures, indicate that monthly GDP grew by 0.2% m/m in May, slightly stronger than... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's oil price rebounds, but will it last? Our measure of Canada's 'effective' crude oil price, a blend of three key benchmarks, has rebounded by a sharp 25% over the past few weeks, to US$88 p/b from US$70 p/b. But this rally in crude oil... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun. 12) June's rise in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 2.0% from 1.8%, mainly reflects transportation base year effects. With inflation expectations well anchored and economic growth likely to remain... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada's new economic forecasts, presented in its July Monetary Policy Report, still look too optimistic, mainly because of its rosy domestic assumptions. Although the bank's lower near... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The modest 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales values in May was entirely due to the fall in the sale of petroleum and coal products. In volume terms, though, overall sales actually nudged higher... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada unwilling to throw in towel Today's Bank of Canada policy statement showed that it is unwilling to throw in the towel on its previous statements that interest rates may need to rise, from the current 1%. Even so, the Bank's... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth likely slowed in Q2 Canada's economy likely grew by a more modest 1.7% in the second quarter, down from the 1.9% pace recorded in each of the two quarters before that. We had expected GDP growth of 2.2% annualised, but... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) May's 0.6% m/m decline in export volumes together with downward revisions to previous months indicate that second-quarter exports declined, a significantly weaker result than our earlier assumption... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Interest rates likely to remain low for years The Bank of Canada policy announcement next week, which almost surely will maintain the policy interest rate at 1%, is likely to acknowledge that the more modest outlook for the global economy has... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Booming housing construction still on uneven footing The recent strength in housing starts, mostly multiples, reflects strong new housing sales from over a year ago. However, home sales are now softening and the recent tightening of mortgage insurance... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook & Senior Loan Officer Surveys (2012Q2) The latest quarterly business surveys indicate that, while significantly fewer businesses expect future sales growth to pick-up over the next 12 months, they remain steadfast in their plans to... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Corporate cash piles could boost economic growth Canadian businesses are flush with cash. Even if just a small fraction of the cash held by the non-financial sector were used to boost dividends, we estimate it would significantly increase personal... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) June's modest 7,300 gain in employment was close to consensus expectations (+5,000) and supports our view that the economy grew more strongly in the second quarter, to 2.2% annualised from 1.9% in the... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
