Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The surprising 0.3% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production in July probably seals the deal on a 50bp interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting on 18th September. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina turns to default The collapse in Argentine assets this month and the subsequent news that the government will seek to reprofile its debts puts the country on the brink of its fifth default in thirty years. The economy... 30th August 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Scepticism surrounding Argentina’s reprofiling plan The Argentine government’s debt reprofiling plan has been greeted with some scepticism, and we think markets will remain under pressure unless investors see evidence of joined-up thinking between... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown bottoms out in Q2 The raft of GDP figures published in the last few weeks suggest that, having slowed over most of the past year, aggregate EM growth ticked up in Q2. But activity is still soft and we expect that EM... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s FX reserves The Argentine central bank’s large intervention in the FX market in recent days hasn’t been enough to stop the peso from weakening further against the dollar, and we think that the gross FX reserve... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s faltering recovery, Argentina’s debt crisis Data due next week are likely to show that Brazil’s economy stagnated in Q2, and the early evidence suggests that the economy remained weak at the start of Q3. A 50bp interest rate cut at the next... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.3% y/y, strengthens the case for Banxico to follow up this month’s 25bp interest rate cut with further... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currencies weaken, but EM rate cuts continue Argentina political developments sparked sharp falls in EM currencies over the past month, but this wasn’t enough to deter policymakers from continuing their easing cycle. Central bankers in Turkey... 21st August 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor More to the EM export slump than the trade war The US-China trade war, which has now been running for over a year, has exerted an increasingly large drag on EM exports. But other factors including weak global demand have been bigger drivers of the... 20th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina crisis wrap, limited contagion, Banxico The Argentine peso has stabilised over the past few trading days but the collapse earlier this week has made a sovereign debt default highly likely. The good news is that contagion to the rest of the... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A primer on Argentina’s primaries, Banxico to cut Argentine markets are likely to take their cue from the outcome of Sunday’s primary elections when they open next week, but we would caution that the vote doesn’t always foreshadow the presidential... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Jul.) The decline in inflation in Brazil and Chile in July points to further monetary easing, and we currently expect a 25bp interest rate cut in both countries next month. In Brazil, with pension reform... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico stimulus, Colombia austerity, dovish surprises The Mexican government’s fiscal stimulus, unveiled this week, looks large enough to support an economic recovery in the second half of the year, but raises medium term fiscal risks. In contrast... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign bond rally likely to go into reverse The recent rally in frontier sovereign dollar bonds is unlikely to be sustained and we expect spreads to widen in Argentina, Ukraine and parts of the Middle East. 30th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & recession fears, Brazil stimulus Mexico’s preliminary Q2 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that the economy stagnated, dodging a technical recession. But whether the growth figure is above zero or not, the key point is... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Early signs that EM growth has turned the corner Having slowed sharply in Q1 and at the start of Q2, it looks like EM GDP growth strengthened a little in May and June. Even so, with China’s slowdown set to resume and the global economy more... 26th July 2019 · 2 mins read
