Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the GM strike, austerity in Colombia The knock-on effects of the strike by GM auto workers in the US mean that the Mexican manufacturing figures due in the coming months will make for grim reading. But if GM’s deal with striking workers... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Protests in Ecuador, soft Latam inflation Intensifying anti-austerity protests in Ecuador have threatened the government’s reform agenda and caused bond spreads to widen this week. But even if the government does water down its fiscal plans... 11th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Lower rates won’t lead to a lending revival The monetary transmission mechanism in Brazil seems to have weakened recently, which is likely to prevent the sharp fall in market interest rates seen since 2017 from feeding through to a significant... 10th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased to a three-year low of 3.0% y/y in September, which strengthens our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of the year. 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru’s political crisis, dire surveys in Mexico The political turmoil that erupted in Peru earlier this week now seems to be fizzling out, supporting our view that it will have a limited impact on the economy. Elsewhere, we suspect that the Mexican... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform faces difficult final stretch Worsening relations between the Brazilian presidency and legislature threaten to delay the much-vaunted pension bill and will keep markets on tenterhooks in the coming weeks. It still looks like the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico will continue The central banks of Brazil and Mexico loosened policy this month, and we expect that they will continue to cut rates in Q4. Inflation in both countries is below target, and both economies are... 30th September 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer recovery, Mexico’s USMCA fears Figures published this week support our view that Brazilian household spending will strengthen over the coming quarters. But with the 2020 budget setting out further fiscal tightening, the overall... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased very slightly over the first half of September, supporting our view that policymakers at the central bank will cut their key rate from 8.00% to 7.75% on Thursday. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina in pre-vote limbo, Brazil easing continues The latest data added to the evidence that Argentina’s recession deepened in Q3. Financial markets have stabilised more recently, but we doubt that the country will make any real progress in resolving... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More good news than bad For all the talk of a global slowdown, the incoming data from the emerging world have been encouraging. Having bottomed out in Q2, GDP growth held steady at around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q3. EM... 20th September 2019 · 10 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still don’t look low The valuations of EM assets have fallen significantly from their peaks in this cycle around the start of last year, but remain above their averages since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our view... 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting our currency forecasts Latin American currencies are likely to weaken further in the coming months alongside most EM currencies. But while we expect the Chilean peso and Peruvian sol to end next year stronger than their... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine capital controls, Chile cuts, weakness in Brazil The introduction of capital controls in Argentina last weekend seems to have stabilised the official foreign exchange market, but it is likely to have pernicious economic effects. Moreover, while... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM financial markets not yet out of the woods The last few weeks have been kinder to EM financial markets than the start of August, when equities and currencies slumped as the US-China trade war ramped up again. Even so, neither has performed... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
