Latin America Economics Weekly Dire Brazil data, tensions brewing in Argentina Data released this week all-but-confirm that Brazilian GDP contracted in Q1 and it looks touch and go as to whether the economy entered a technical recession in Q2. Another fall in output this quarter... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Echoes of 2018 This month’s escalation of US-China trade tensions and renewed concerns about Argentina and Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities have clear parallels with 2018, when these same factors triggered a sell... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising trade tensions and what they mean for EMs The latest increase in trade tensions between the US and China so far appears to have had a larger impact on EM currency markets than previous flare-ups in the trade war. But the impact of the latest... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico CPI boosted by Easter, dovish Andean CBs Data released this week confirming a further rise in Mexican inflation last month were eye-catching, but it looks like Easter effects were partly to blame. Elsewhere, dovish statements accompanying... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM LC bonds unlikely to keep tracking US Treasuries While the average EM 10-year local currency sovereign bond yield has followed the equivalent US Treasury yield very closely recently, we doubt that this will last much longer. Indeed, we forecast that... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina policy U-turn continues, Maduro clings on The decision by Argentina’s central bank to scrap the peso’s trading band and signal more FX intervention has shored up the currency this week but, sooner rather than later, markets are likely to test... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI falls back as BRICs falter The drop in the headline EM manufacturing PMI in April was driven by weaker surveys out of all four BRIC economies. The breakdown of Markit’s aggregate EM survey showed that the rebound in EM exports... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Four points on EM political risk premiums The key determinants of EM political risk premiums are the type of political shock and the strength of an economy’s external balance sheet. With this in mind, Ukraine and Argentina have the greatest... 1st May 2019 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the latest EM currency “sell-off” The recent sell-off in EM currencies has grabbed the headlines but in truth, aside from the Argentine peso and Turkish lira, the moves have been relatively limited. This Update highlights three key... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Political risks begin to crystallise The past month has seen political risks in key economies start to crystallise. The rout in Argentine markets, triggered by concerns about the dwindling re-election prospects of President Macri, has... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currency sell-off not a headwind to growth yet The sell-offs in the Argentine peso and Turkish lira have sparked fears of broader turmoil in EM financial markets. But, so far at least, this has yet to materialise. Sovereign dollar bond spreads... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina: pricing political risk, CA now in balance? Argentine markets have stabilised today but, by our estimates, the aggressive sell-off earlier this week has resulted in the political risk premium on dollar bonds widening to around 200bp. We think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth weakest in nearly three years in Q1 Economic growth in the emerging world appears to have slowed further in the first quarter of this year, to its weakest pace since Q2 2016. Early indicators suggest that activity picked up at the end... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency outlook poor regardless of oil prices Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How often do EM central banks respond to currency falls? Turkey’s central bank seems to react like clockwork by tightening monetary policy when the lira falls sharply, but other EM central banks respond much less frequently than is commonly believed. Most... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports past the worst, but will remain weak Having stagnated in February, there are tentative signs in the March data that the worst has passed for EM exports. But weakness in the global technology sector, lower commodity prices and soft global... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
