Latin America Chart Pack Interest rate cuts imminent The case for interest rate cuts across Latin America has strengthened in the past month, partly because of the dovish shift by the Fed, but also because of soft domestic inflation and growth... 25th July 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pemex yields to rise further, Chile to cut rates The Mexican government’s underwhelming business plan for troubled state-owned oil company, Pemex, reinforces our view that it is not willing to implement the reforms necessary to stabilise oil... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth picked up in Q2 Early signs suggest that aggregate EM growth strengthened in Q2. (See Chart 1.) Our GDP trackers point to a recoveries across most of the emerging world. The rebound seems to have strongest in... 19th July 2019 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for fiscal policy? With budget deficits still large in Brazil and Argentina, fiscal policy there will continue to be tightened over the coming years. But small budget deficits in Mexico, Chile and Peru mean that... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico moving towards rate cuts, Brazil’s pension bill The minutes to the last Mexican central bank meeting, published yesterday, revealed a more dovish shift on the Bank’s Board than we had expected. We now think that an interest rate cut at the next... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Regional recovery to be slow-going After a terrible start to the year, we expect economic growth in Latin America to pick up over the next 12-18 months. However, recoveries in most cases will be weak. Indeed, our GDP forecasts for many... 12th July 2019 · 27 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Jun.) The sharp drop in Brazilian inflation to 3.4% in June, which took it below the central bank’s target, suggests that policymakers will soon start to ease monetary policy. Barring any major hiccups with... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Set for a challenging second half of the year EM GDP growth has slowed sharply and, while it should bottom out soon, growth will remain very weak. Indeed, our forecasts lie below the consensus across much of the emerging world. 8th July 2019 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil: pension reform progress, Copom shifting tone Brazil’s much-vaunted pension reform passed an important legislative hurdle this week, although the bill is likely to come up against more substantial resistance in the coming weeks. In the meantime... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the EM investment slump EM investment growth probably slowed to its weakest rate in twenty years in early 2019, although most of that seems to be related to tighter financial conditions and low commodity prices rather than... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of Q2 slowdown The further fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM growth slowed in Q2 and the forward-looking components of the survey point to a weak start to the third quarter. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Hurdles ahead for the Mercosur-EU trade deal The preliminary trade deal between Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) and the EU, if implemented in full, would boost potential growth in the bloc, perhaps by as much as 0.75-1.0%-pt... 1st July 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil pensions delay, Argentina CA, Banxico dissenter It’s been a noisy week in Brazilian politics but, while the chances of some kind of pension reform being approved this year have risen, we think the fiscal savings will be smaller than many are... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth hits the buffers EM GDP growth slowed in Q1 to rates only seen a handful times in the last two decades. And while there are signs of a turnaround in some of the worst-performing economies, growth in the emerging world... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Investors go from too hawkish to too dovish Investors have rapidly come round to our dovish view on Latin American monetary policy but, if anything, they have probably now gone too far in anticipating large rate cuts across the region over the... 25th June 2019 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth running at a three-year low EM GDP growth slowed to just 3.3% y/y in Q1, its weakest pace since the first half of 2016, and our Tracker suggests that it remained sluggish in Q2. Growth should pick up a little in the second half... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
