Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export weakness to persist, trade deal or not The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit has raised hopes of a US-China trade deal but, as things stand, we think it is more likely that the trade war will ultimately... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after IMF deals? With EMs such as Argentina, Ukraine and Ecuador having recently agreed IMF deals, and others (Turkey) still looking vulnerable to a crisis, this Update looks at what happens to countries after... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate cuts coming in Brazil, Argentine political jostling The weakness of the Brazilian economy and rapidly falling inflation mean we now expect an interest rate cut, and we think there is a window of opportunity for Copom to act at next week’s meeting... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting our 2019 Latin America growth forecasts The weakness in growth across Latin America in Q1 largely reflected a coincidence of shocks, and probably won’t last. Even so, the weak carryover has prompted us to revise down our (already below-... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will African Swine Fever have on EMs? African Swine Fever has already pushed inflation in China up markedly and, if the disease spreads further, it could also add around 0.3%-pts to inflation in parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. The... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t make a compelling case for EM assets The valuations of EM assets are not particularly low, which is one reason why we expect EM financial markets to suffer along with those elsewhere as the global economy disappoints in the coming... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are sovereign default risks greatest? There is growing attention on sovereign debt risks in some EMs. Vulnerabilities seem to be most acute in Argentina as well as in some of the smaller economies in the Middle East and Africa such as... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US tariffs on Mexico and the implications for EMs US tariffs on imports from Mexico would have major repercussions for Mexico’s economy, but any spillovers on other EMs through trade links are likely to be small. For the rest of the emerging world... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s investment slump, rate cuts One factor that has been missed amid the growing debate about the weakness of Brazil’s economy is the continued slump in investment and, more worryingly, the fact that there is little prospect for a... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional growth slumps The raft of GDP data released this month showed that regional growth slowed to just 0.3% y/y in Q1 (from 1.0% y/y in Q4), the weakest pace in two years. While it doesn’t look like sluggish growth will... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currencies vulnerable to renminbi depreciation The relationship between the renminbi and other emerging market currencies has strengthened in recent years. While the response to renewed US-China tensions has been limited so far, if the renminbi... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fernández-Fernández, Brazil reform, GDP drop Investors have largely welcomed the decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president (rather than the top job) in Argentina’s election in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What’s behind the slump in commodity producers? The weakness in EM commodity producers at the start of the year seems to reflect a coincidence of shocks, and probably won’t last. But the key point is that many commodity producers are yet to fully... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
